The first estimate of the fourth-quarter change in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product is expected to show that the U.S. economy ended 2025 on solid footing, although growth in the quarter likely was below that seen earlier in the year.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its GDP estimate at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Friday.
The consensus estimate among economists surveyed by FactSet is that real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.9% in the final three months of the year. That would be a significant deceleration from the 4.4% growth rate logged during the third quarter. Bloomberg’s consensus estimate calls for a more robust 2.8% growth rate, but still below the prior quarter’s performance.
The disparity lies, to some degree, in the estimated impact of continued shifts in trade flows and the 43-day government shutdown that started on Oct. 1 and proved the longest in U.S. history. The shutdown curbed federal spending, contributing to diminished GDP growth.
Consumer spending likely drove much of the gain in fourth-quarter GDP, with an uptick concentrated in October and November. Retail sales data showed that activity was flat in December. Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, estimates that consumer spending grew at a 2.5% annual rate in the quarter, compared with 3.5% growth in the third quarter.
“The economy clearly retained a lot of underlying momentum toward the end of last year,” Allen writes.
Economists generally expect that growth in the fourth quarter will be solid enough to deliver 2% annual GDP growth for 2025, considered a healthy pace of growth.
Economists project that the U.S. economy saw modest increases in private fixed investment during the fourth quarter. But government spending is less certain and residential investment growth is forecast to post another soft quarter. Goldman Sachs economists forecast that government spending fell by an annualized 17.5% in the period relative to the third quarter, due to the shutdown. That could translate to as much as a 1.1 percentage point drag on GDP.
Trade also is thought to have depressed fourth-quarter GDP growth, given a larger-than-expected trade deficit in December. The trade deficit rose to a higher-than-expected $70.3 billion in the month from $53 billion in November, due to a combination of more imports and fewer exports, Census reported on Thursday.
“Trade took a roller coaster ride in 2025 as tariffs jolted flows, mostly on the import side of the ledger,” writes Oren Klachkin, financial market economist at Nationwide. But even with the swings in the data, the trade deficit decreased by only $2.1 billion, or 0.2%, on an annual basis, he notes.
Net exports dropped by about $5 billion in December, mostly due to a continued normalization of gold exports. “Still, stronger imports will mechanically weigh on growth and net exports could be a larger drag (or smaller boost) on Q4 GDP released tomorrow,” writes Citi economist Veronica Clark.
Nationwide’s Klachkin noted that with the peak tariff drag now likely over, investors can expect trade to settle into a more predictable rhythm in 2026.
Comments