Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Thursday maintained its buy rating on the shares of Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO, CVE) with a C$30.00 price target after the oil producer and refiner reported much better than expected fourth-quarter results.
"Anticipating outperformance today given strong key metrics, headlined by a ~22% beat on AFFO (C$2,674MM vs. TPHe/Street-survey C$2,208MM/C$2,204MM or C$1.46 on a per share basis vs. TPHe/Street C$1.21/C$1.20; includes C$189MM cash tax recovery). Net of slightly higher-than-expected capex of C$1,360MM vs. TPHe/Street C$1,302MM/C$1,302MM, FCF beat at C$1,314MM vs. TPHe/survey-implied C$906MM/C$902MM, supporting shareholder returns of C$1,094MM, including C$714MM in buybacks and C$380MM in dividends. On headline ops metrics, 918mboepd total production slightly beat TPHe/Street 917/914, and 466mbpd combined throughput beat TPHe/Street 447/447. At the segment level on op. margin (C$2,777MM vs. consensus C$2,528MM), Oil Sands comprised ~51% of the beat (C$2,225MM vs. TPHe/Street C$1,936MM/C$2,097MM), owing to metrics across the board including 727mboepd production vs. TPHe/Street 721/717), with contribution from US refining also standing out at ~39% of the beat (C$81MM vs. TPHe/Street C$108MM/-C$15MM; 353mbpd throughput vs. TPHe/Street 340/341), though the segment was aided by the receipt of C$67MM in proceeds related to a pipeline settlement (margin capture still ~95% adjusting for this)," analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon wrote.
(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)
Price: 31.09, Change: +0.64, Percent Change: +2.10
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