Why Coinbase (COIN) Is Up 7.1% After Q4 Loss, Big Buyback and New ESOP Shelf Registration

Simply Wall St.02-19 22:22

In February 2026, Coinbase Global, Inc. reported fourth-quarter 2025 results showing revenue of US$1,781.13 million and a net loss of US$666.73 million, contrasting with the prior year's profit, while...

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An interesting angle for investors is the combination of heavy share repurchases and a large employee share offering, which together reshape Coinbase’s capital structure and highlight management’s focus on both shareholder returns and workforce incentives. We’ll now examine how Coinbase’s swing to a quarterly net loss, alongside its capital actions, affects the pre-existing investment narrative. Find 53 companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.AdvertisementCoinbase Global Investment Narrative RecapTo own Coinbase, you generally need to believe that regulated crypto infrastructure, tokenization and onchain payments will keep deepening into mainstream finance, even when trading cycles turn. The latest quarter’s swing to a US$666.73 million loss and softer revenue keeps the biggest short term risk squarely on depressed trading activity and earnings volatility. Near term, that risk looks more pressing than any single upside catalyst, while the capital actions themselves do not materially change it. The most relevant update is Coinbase’s completion of a US$1,744.9 million buyback, retiring 8,227,751 shares, alongside a new US$2.46 billion ESOP shelf registration. Together, these moves tighten the share count while preparing for future employee stock issuance, which matters for how any recovery in trading volumes and subscription revenue ultimately flows through to each share. For investors tracking catalysts, the balance between buybacks and dilution now becomes a key metric to watch. Yet against this, you should be aware that regulatory costs and security incidents could still materially affect Coinbase’s margins and resilience if... Read the full narrative on Coinbase Global (it's free!)Coinbase Global's narrative projects $8.5 billion revenue and $2.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 8.3% yearly revenue growth and a $0.8 billion earnings decrease from $2.9 billion today.Uncover how Coinbase Global's forecasts yield a $383.46 fair value, a 134% upside to its current price.Exploring Other PerspectivesCOIN 1-Year Stock Price Chart Some of the most optimistic analysts were once modeling revenue of about US$12.1 billion and earnings near US$2.6 billion a few years out, which sits very far from the current quarter’s loss and highlights how differently you and other shareholders might weigh the upside of tokenization against the risk that trading cycles and regulation could reshape those expectations after results like these.Explore 27 other fair value estimates on Coinbase Global - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!Form Your Own VerdictDon't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.A great starting point for your Coinbase Global research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.Our free Coinbase Global research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Coinbase Global's overall financial health at a glance.Want Some Alternatives?Markets shift fast. These stocks won't stay hidden for long. Get the list while it matters:Invest in the nuclear renaissance through our list of 85 elite nuclear energy infrastructure plays powering the global AI revolution.AI is about to change healthcare. These 25 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.Explore 24 top quantum computing companies leading the revolution in next-gen technology and shaping the future with breakthroughs in quantum algorithms, superconducting qubits, and cutting-edge research.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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