Is It Too Late To Consider BHP Group (ASX:BHP) After Strong Five Year Share Gains?

Simply Wall St.02-20

If you are looking at BHP Group and wondering whether the current share price gives you fair value for one of the biggest names in resources, this article is designed to walk you through that question...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2612317452?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://images.simplywall.st/asset/company-cover/256654-main-header/1585186732463","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2026-02-20 05:29","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2612317452","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Is It Too Late To Consider BHP Group (ASX:BHP) After Strong Five Year Share Gains?","media":"Simply Wall St.","content":"<div>\n<p>If you are looking at BHP Group and wondering whether the current share price gives you fair value for one of the biggest names in resources, this article is designed to walk you through that question...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-strong-fiv\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is It Too Late To Consider BHP Group (ASX:BHP) After Strong Five Year Share Gains?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs It Too Late To Consider BHP Group (ASX:BHP) After Strong Five Year Share Gains?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-20 05:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-strong-fiv><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you are looking at BHP Group and wondering whether the current share price gives you fair value for one of the biggest names in resources, this article is designed to walk you through that question...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-strong-fiv\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK7095","symbol_name":"多种金属与采矿","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-strong-fiv","article_id":"2612317452","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/company-cover/256654-main-header/1585186732463"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-strong-fiv","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612317452","pubTimestamp":1771536591,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are looking at BHP Group and wondering whether the current share price gives you fair value for one of the biggest names in resources, this article is designed to walk you through that question step by step.\nBHP Group shares last closed at A$53.23, with returns of 2.2% over 7 days, 11.4% over 30 days, 16.3% year to date, 38.3% over 1 year, 32.8% over 3 years and 68.1% over 5 years, which naturally raises the question of what is already priced in.\nRecent coverage around BHP Group has...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK7095":"多种金属与采矿","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4168":"多种金属与采矿","BK7507":"资源股","BHP.AU":"BHP GROUP LTD","BHP":"必和必拓公司","LU0300736492.USD":"FRANKLIN NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) INC","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","BK7511":"ESG概念","LU0300736062.USD":"FRANKLIN NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"在股价连续五年强劲上涨后，现在考虑必和必拓集团（ASX：BHP）是否为时已晚？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DCF":1,"BHP":1.5,"BHP.AU":1.5},"content_text":"If you are looking at BHP Group and wondering whether the current share price gives you fair value for one of the biggest names in resources, this article is designed to walk you through that question step by step. BHP Group shares last closed at A$53.23, with returns of 2.2% over 7 days, 11.4% over 30 days, 16.3% year to date, 38.3% over 1 year, 32.8% over 3 years and 68.1% over 5 years, which naturally raises the question of what is already priced in. Recent coverage around BHP Group has focused on its role as a diversified miner and how commodity sentiment can influence trading interest in large resource stocks. This helps frame those return figures. This backdrop is important because shifts in expectations for demand, costs or capital allocation can quickly change how investors think about what they are willing to pay. On our checks BHP Group has a valuation score of 3 out of 6, indicating it screens as undervalued on half of the metrics we look at. Next we will walk through the main valuation approaches before finishing with a more complete way to interpret those numbers in context.  Find out why BHP Group's 38.3% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers. AdvertisementApproach 1: BHP Group Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes a series of future cash flow projections and discounts them back to today to estimate what the company might be worth right now. For BHP Group, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on cash flows reported in $. The latest twelve month free cash flow is $10.33b. Analysts and internal estimates project free cash flow at $11.15b in 2030, with a path that includes figures such as $10.85b in 2026 and $11.43b in 2027, followed by extrapolated values through to 2035. Simply Wall St only uses direct analyst inputs for the nearer years, with later years extrapolated from those inputs. When all those projected cash flows are discounted back and added up, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of $39.59 per share. Compared with the recent share price of A$53.23, this DCF output indicates the stock is about 34.5% above the modeled intrinsic value on this basis. Result: OVERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests BHP Group may be overvalued by 34.5%. Discover 11 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities. BHP Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for BHP Group. Approach 2: BHP Group Price vs Earnings For a profitable business like BHP Group, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand for how much investors are currently paying for each dollar of earnings. It lets you line up different companies on the same scale, which is especially handy across a sector like metals and mining. What counts as a “normal” P/E will usually reflect what investors expect for future growth and how much risk they see in those earnings. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or greater uncertainty often comes with a lower multiple. BHP Group is trading on a P/E of 18.59x. That sits below both the Metals and Mining industry average of 24.54x and the broader peer group average of 26.57x. Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary “Fair Ratio” for BHP Group of 30.43x, which is the P/E it might trade on given factors such as its earnings profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and specific risks. This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple comparison with peers because it adjusts for those company level characteristics rather than assuming all miners deserve the same multiple. On this basis, BHP Group’s current 18.59x P/E is below the 30.43x Fair Ratio, which indicates that the shares screen as undervalued using this approach. Result: UNDERVALUED ASX:BHP P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 2 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your BHP Group Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simply your own story about BHP Group linked directly to numbers like future revenue, earnings, margins and a fair value estimate. On Simply Wall St, Narratives sit inside the Community page and give you an easy way to spell out how you think BHP Group’s business will evolve, translate that into a forecast, and then see what fair value that story implies compared with today’s A$53.23 share price. Because Narratives update automatically when new information such as earnings, broker targets or news headlines come through, they can help you decide whether the gap between your fair value and the current market price is wide enough to act on, or whether it suggests holding back. For example, one BHP Group Narrative on the bullish end uses assumptions that line up with a fair value around A$57.64, while a more cautious Narrative sits closer to A$38.25, so you can see in one place how different views on revenue growth, profit margins, discount rates and P/E multiples translate into very different estimates of what the shares might be worth today. For BHP Group, however, we'll make it really easy for you with previews of two leading BHP Group Narratives: Start by asking yourself which one feels closer to how you see the business today, then sense check the numbers rather than the labels. 🐂 BHP Group Bull Case Fair value in this bullish Narrative: A$57.64 per share. At the last close of A$53.23, the current price sits about 7.7% below that Narrative fair value. Revenue growth assumption: 6.43% per year.  BHP is framed as a global resources leader focused on large, long life, low cost iron ore, copper, steelmaking coal and potash assets that can support revenue and EBITDA over time. The growth pipeline leans heavily on copper and potash, with management targeting average production growth of 2.2% per year over the next decade, and bullish analysts building in higher future earnings and margins. This view assumes disciplined capital allocation, a net debt range of US$10b to US$20b and a minimum 50% dividend payout, with risks mainly around China and India demand, project execution, cost inflation and commodity price cycles.  🐻 BHP Group Bear Case Fair value in this more cautious Narrative: A$51.72 per share. At the last close of A$53.23, the current price sits about 2.9% above that Narrative fair value. Revenue growth assumption: 0.41% per year.  BHP is still seen as a major beneficiary of demand for critical minerals and steelmaking materials, but the figures build in modest revenue contraction over the next few years and only a limited gap between price and fair value. The focus is on long life, low cost assets and disciplined capital management, yet the Narrative highlights that outcomes will depend heavily on how iron ore prices, copper and potash projects and capital spending actually play out. Key risks include iron ore concentration, project delays and cost overruns, regulatory and ESG pressures, inflation and labor costs, which together could cap earnings and keep the stock closer to what this Narrative treats as a fairly priced range.  If you want to go beyond these previews and work through the numbers yourself, use them as starting templates and adjust the revenue, margin and P/E assumptions until they line up with your own expectations for BHP Group. Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives Do you think there's more to the story for BHP Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! ASX:BHP 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if BHP Group might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2612317452","isCrawlerRequest":true}