Did Oasis’ US$122 Million MTN Buy After Weak Ski Season Just Reframe Vail’s Resilience Story?

Simply Wall St.02-18

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Oasis Management disclosed buying 833,500 Vail Resorts shares, lifting its stake by about US$122.66 million despite season-to-date skier visits falling 20% and related ...

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This sizable purchase by a professional investor, even after a weak ski season, highlights differing views on Vail Resorts’ longer-term business resilience and earnings power. We’ll now examine how Oasis Management’s increased stake, despite sharply lower skier visits, may influence Vail Resorts’ existing investment narrative. Invest in the nuclear renaissance through our list of 85 elite nuclear energy infrastructure plays powering the global AI revolution.AdvertisementVail Resorts Investment Narrative RecapTo own Vail Resorts, you need to believe its network of destination mountains and pass products can support resilient earnings even when weather and visitation are weak. The Oasis Management purchase underscores that not all investors see a poor snow year as changing that core thesis. However, the 20% drop in skier visits keeps weather and demand timing as the most immediate risks, with the upcoming earnings release remaining the key short term catalyst. The Oasis move itself does not materially change that. The most relevant upcoming event is Vail Resorts’ fiscal Q2 2026 earnings release on 9 March 2026. With skier visits down sharply and ancillary revenues under pressure, this call will give investors fresh detail on how management is tracking against its FY2026 net income guidance of US$201 million to US$276 million and its US$100 million cost efficiency program, both of which are central to the current investment narrative. Yet beneath Oasis’s vote of confidence, the real risk investors should be aware of is how sensitive Vail’s earnings still are to... Read the full narrative on Vail Resorts (it's free!)Vail Resorts' narrative projects $3.3 billion revenue and $326.6 million earnings by 2028. This requires 3.7% yearly revenue growth and about a $36.5 million earnings increase from $290.1 million today.Uncover how Vail Resorts' forecasts yield a $174.18 fair value, a 26% upside to its current price.Exploring Other PerspectivesMTN 1-Year Stock Price Chart Before this weak season, the most optimistic analysts were assuming revenue would reach about US$3.5 billion and earnings roughly US$389.6 million, which is far more upbeat than consensus and sits uncomfortably against the latest weather driven setback and the concern that Vail’s heavy reliance on season pass models could limit growth if broader ski demand softens.Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Vail Resorts - why the stock might be worth as much as 86% more than the current price!Form Your Own VerdictDon't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.A great starting point for your Vail Resorts research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.Our free Vail Resorts research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Vail Resorts' overall financial health at a glance.Seeking Other Investments?These stocks are moving-our analysis flagged them today. Act fast before the price catches up:Rare earth metals are the new gold rush. Find out which 30 stocks are leading the charge.Outshine the giants: these 26 early-stage AI stocks could fund your retirement.Find 56 companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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