Is Marriott International (MAR) Pricing In Too Much Optimism After Strong Multi‑Year Share Gains

Simply Wall St.02-19

If you are wondering whether Marriott International's current share price lines up with its underlying value, you are not alone. This article will walk through what the numbers are actually saying. At...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2612427905?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://images.simplywall.st/asset/company-cover/31148-main-header/1756206676934","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2026-02-19 05:27","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2612427905","market":"nz","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Is Marriott International (MAR) Pricing In Too Much Optimism After Strong Multi‑Year Share Gains","media":"Simply Wall St.","content":"<div>\n<p>If you are wondering whether Marriott International's current share price lines up with its underlying value, you are not alone. This article will walk through what the numbers are actually saying. At...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-services/nasdaq-mar/marriott-international/news/is-marriott-international-mar-pricing-in-too-much-optimism-a\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Marriott International (MAR) Pricing In Too Much Optimism After Strong Multi‑Year Share Gains</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Marriott International (MAR) Pricing In Too Much Optimism After Strong Multi‑Year Share Gains\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-19 05:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-services/nasdaq-mar/marriott-international/news/is-marriott-international-mar-pricing-in-too-much-optimism-a><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you are wondering whether Marriott International's current share price lines up with its underlying value, you are not alone. This article will walk through what the numbers are actually saying. At...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-services/nasdaq-mar/marriott-international/news/is-marriott-international-mar-pricing-in-too-much-optimism-a\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"GB00B4QBRK32.GBP","symbol_name":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-services/nasdaq-mar/marriott-international/news/is-marriott-international-mar-pricing-in-too-much-optimism-a","article_id":"2612427905","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/company-cover/31148-main-header/1756206676934"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-services/nasdaq-mar/marriott-international/news/is-marriott-international-mar-pricing-in-too-much-optimism-a","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612427905","pubTimestamp":1771450033,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are wondering whether Marriott International's current share price lines up with its underlying value, you are not alone. This article will walk through what the numbers are actually saying.\nAt a last close of US$359.94, the stock has returns of 0.2% over 7 days, 10.5% over 30 days, 14.8% year to date, 26.0% over 1 year, 117.3% over 3 years and 149.6% over 5 years, which raises a fair question about how much of the story is already reflected in the price.\nRecent news flow around...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"GB00B4QBRK32.GBP":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) INC","IE00B45NX917.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Real Estate Securities A Acc SGD-H","IE00B1G9WX41.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US REAL ESTATE SECURITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B0T0GQ85.USD":"路博迈美国房地产基金A Acc","MAR.AU":"MALACHITE RESOURCES LTD","IE00B95QR487.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US REAL ESTATE SECURITIES \"A\" (USD) INC A","BK4142":"酒店、度假村与豪华游轮","LU0690374961.EUR":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (EUR) INC","LU1718418525.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Select Equity A (acc) SGD","IE00BD0PCF45.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US REAL ESTATE SECURITIES \"A\" (HKDHDG) INC A","GB00B4LPDJ14.GBP":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) ACC","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","LU2404859741.USD":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY FUND \"R\" (USD) INC","LU0690374615.EUR":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (EUR) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","MAR":"万豪酒店","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2404859667.USD":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY FUND \"R\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"万豪国际集团(MAR)在股价多年强劲上涨后的定价是否过于乐观","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MAR":1.5,"DCF":1,"MAR.AU":1.5},"content_text":"If you are wondering whether Marriott International's current share price lines up with its underlying value, you are not alone. This article will walk through what the numbers are actually saying. At a last close of US$359.94, the stock has returns of 0.2% over 7 days, 10.5% over 30 days, 14.8% year to date, 26.0% over 1 year, 117.3% over 3 years and 149.6% over 5 years, which raises a fair question about how much of the story is already reflected in the price. Recent news flow around Marriott has largely centered on its position as a global hotel operator and ongoing interest from investors tracking travel and hospitality companies, giving more context to the current share price levels. These headlines help frame whether investors are focusing more on long term brand strength or on shorter term shifts in travel demand. Even so, Marriott currently has a valuation score of 0 out of 6 on Simply Wall St's checks for undervaluation, so next we will look at how different valuation methods assess the stock and then finish with a more holistic way to think about value.  Marriott International scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown. AdvertisementApproach 1: Marriott International Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company could be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to the present. In this case, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach built on cash flow projections. Marriott International is shown with last twelve months free cash flow of about US$2.4b. Analyst and extrapolated projections in the model extend out ten years, with forecast free cash flow for 2035 of about US$4.1b. Simply Wall St notes that only the nearer term is based on analyst estimates, while the later years are extrapolated rather than directly forecast by analysts. Adding up these discounted cash flows yields an estimated intrinsic value of US$213.37 per share. Against the recent share price of US$359.94, the model implies the stock is about 68.7% above this DCF estimate. This points to a rich price on this specific cash flow view. Result: OVERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Marriott International may be overvalued by 68.7%. Discover 56 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities. MAR Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Marriott International. Approach 2: Marriott International Price vs Earnings For profitable companies like Marriott International, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to relate what you pay for each share to the earnings that support that price. It lets you quickly compare how the market is pricing those earnings across different companies. What counts as a \"normal\" or \"fair\" P/E depends on how the market views a company’s growth prospects and risk profile. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can support a higher P/E, while slower expected growth or higher risk usually points to a lower P/E. Marriott currently trades on a P/E of 36.67x, compared with the Hospitality industry average of about 21.89x and a peer group average of 31.66x. Simply Wall St also provides a proprietary “Fair Ratio” of 29.36x, which represents the P/E it would expect for Marriott given factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margin, market cap and risks. This Fair Ratio can be more tailored than a simple peer or industry comparison because it attempts to adjust for those company specific characteristics. Set against this Fair Ratio, Marriott’s current P/E of 36.67x sits higher, which suggests the shares are pricing in more optimistic conditions than the model implies. Result: OVERVALUED NasdaqGS:MAR P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 23 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Marriott International Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. On Simply Wall St’s Community page you can use Narratives, where you set out your story for Marriott International, link it to your own forecasts for revenue, earnings and margins, and see a Fair Value that updates automatically when new news or earnings arrive. You can then compare that Fair Value with the current price to help judge whether to act, whether you lean toward a higher valuation such as about US$569.07 per share or a lower one closer to about US$321.48 or US$370.00 based on different assumptions other investors have shared. For Marriott International however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Marriott International Narratives: 🐂 Marriott International Bull Case Fair value in this bullish narrative: US$569.07 per share. This implies Marriott trades at about 36.7% above this fair value estimate based on the last close of US$359.94. Narrative revenue growth assumption: 19.23%.  Focuses on Marriott as a resilient global travel name built around an asset light model, fee based revenue and broad brand recognition across segments. Highlights the importance of loyalty through Marriott Bonvoy, global brand trust and consistency for travelers who want reliability alongside local character. Frames the thesis around cash generation, capital light expansion and long term participation in growing global mobility rather than short term travel swings.  🐻 Marriott International Bear Case Fair value in this more cautious narrative: US$321.48 per share. This implies Marriott trades at about 11.96% above this fair value estimate based on the last close of US$359.94. Narrative revenue growth assumption: 62.91%.  Emphasizes room growth, mid scale expansion, technology spend and loyalty driven direct bookings as key inputs to future earnings and margins. Spells out risks around moderating RevPAR, regional volatility, heavier technology and labor costs and reliance on conversions to support unit growth. Summarizes how analysts tie these assumptions into a fair value range, encouraging you to sense check their revenue, margin and P/E expectations against your own view.  If you want to see how other investors are joining the dots between these viewpoints, Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives and see which story lines up with your own expectations for Marriott International. Do you think there's more to the story for Marriott International? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NasdaqGS:MAR 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2612427905","isCrawlerRequest":true}