Assessing MP Materials (MP) Valuation After US Government Equity Investment And National Security Focus

Simply Wall St.02-19

AdvertisementGovernment investment puts MP Materials (MP) in the national security spotlight The recent move by the U.S. government to take a direct equity stake in MP Materials (MP), including US$400...

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See our latest analysis for MP Materials. After a sharp 17.4% 30 day share price decline and a 10.4% 90 day share price retreat to about US$56.95, MP Materials still carries a very large 1 year total shareholder return of roughly 143%. This suggests earlier enthusiasm is cooling even as the market reassesses its role in U.S. rare earth supply following the Pentagon’s US$400 million preferred stake and recent technical tests around key support levels. If this national security angle has you thinking more broadly about critical materials, it could be worth scanning our 30 best rare earth metal stocks for more rare earth producers on investors’ radar. With MP trading around US$56.95 after recent declines, yet sitting on an intrinsic value estimate that implies a 64% discount, you have to ask yourself: is this a mispriced national security asset, or is the market already baking in future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 12% Overvalued According to OOO97’s narrative, MP Materials’ fair value sits at about $50.85, which is below the last close of $56.95, putting the current price slightly ahead of that story.  MP Materials represents the highest conviction idea in the sector for 2026. The market is currently pricing MP as a mining company, ignoring its imminent transformation into a high-margin industrial manufacturer.  Read the complete narrative. It is worth asking what kind of revenue mix, margin profile, and future earnings multiple are implied by that view. The narrative leans on multi stage integration and a valuation frame that looks more like a specialist manufacturer than a pure miner. The assumptions behind that shift are where the analysis becomes more detailed. Result: Fair Value of $50.85 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, that story still leans on successful magnet ramp up and stable NdPr pricing, and any operational delays or weaker rare earth demand could challenge it. Find out about the key risks to this MP Materials narrative. Another View: SWS DCF vs User Fair Value OOO97’s $50.85 fair value points to a mildly overvalued share price, but our DCF model presents a very different picture, with an estimated value of $159.16 per share and MP trading at a 64.2% discount. When two methods disagree this sharply, which story do you trust? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. MP Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out MP Materials for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 56 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity. Next Steps If this mix of optimism and caution around MP Materials leaves you undecided, take a moment to review the full picture yourself and weigh up 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign. Ready to uncover more investment ideas? If MP has you thinking bigger about your portfolio, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall St screener to spot ideas you might otherwise miss.  Target potential value opportunities by checking out 56 high quality undervalued stocks, where solid fundamentals meet prices that some investors may have overlooked. Strengthen your income stream with 13 dividend fortresses, focusing on companies offering yields that could appeal to dividend focused portfolios. Stack the odds toward resilience by reviewing 80 resilient stocks with low risk scores, highlighting companies with risk profiles that some investors may find more comfortable to hold.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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