Is It Too Late To Consider Greif (GEF) After Its Strong Multi‑Year Share Price Run?

Simply Wall St.02-17

If you are wondering whether Greif is still reasonably priced after its recent run, you are not alone. This article will focus squarely on what you might be paying for each dollar of the business. The...

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The...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/materials/nyse-gef/greif/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-greif-gef-after-its-strong-multiy\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is It Too Late To Consider Greif (GEF) After Its Strong Multi‑Year Share Price Run?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs It Too Late To Consider Greif (GEF) After Its Strong Multi‑Year Share Price Run?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-17 04:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/materials/nyse-gef/greif/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-greif-gef-after-its-strong-multiy><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you are wondering whether Greif is still reasonably priced after its recent run, you are not alone. This article will focus squarely on what you might be paying for each dollar of the business. The...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/materials/nyse-gef/greif/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-greif-gef-after-its-strong-multiy\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"GEF","symbol_name":"格瑞夫","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/materials/nyse-gef/greif/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-greif-gef-after-its-strong-multiy","article_id":"2612877384","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/2041000-choice2-main-header/1585186810333"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/materials/nyse-gef/greif/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-greif-gef-after-its-strong-multiy","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612877384","pubTimestamp":1771273310,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are wondering whether Greif is still reasonably priced after its recent run, you are not alone. This article will focus squarely on what you might be paying for each dollar of the business.\nThe stock last closed at US$76.82, with returns of 3.5% over 7 days, 6.8% over 30 days, 12.2% year to date, 30.2% over 1 year, 18.4% over 3 years and 90.6% over 5 years. This naturally raises questions about how much value is already reflected in the price.\nRecent coverage of Greif has highlighted...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"GEF":"格瑞夫","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","BK4126":"金属与玻璃容器"},"translate_title":"在Greif(GEF)股价多年强劲上涨之后，现在考虑它是否为时已晚？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GEF":1,"DCF":1},"content_text":"If you are wondering whether Greif is still reasonably priced after its recent run, you are not alone. This article will focus squarely on what you might be paying for each dollar of the business. The stock last closed at US$76.82, with returns of 3.5% over 7 days, 6.8% over 30 days, 12.2% year to date, 30.2% over 1 year, 18.4% over 3 years and 90.6% over 5 years. This naturally raises questions about how much value is already reflected in the price. Recent coverage of Greif has highlighted investor interest in the packaging and industrial containers space, with attention on how companies in the sector are positioned on costs, capacity and capital allocation. This backdrop has helped frame the discussion around whether current pricing still lines up with business quality and balance sheet strength. On our valuation checklist, Greif scores 2 out of 6. Next we will walk through the main valuation approaches that sit behind that score and then finish with a different way of looking at valuation that can help tie all of these methods together.  Greif scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown. AdvertisementApproach 1: Greif Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company might be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and discounting those back to a present value using a required return. For Greif, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of $142.82 million. Looking ahead, analysts and extrapolations point to free cash flow of $315.43 million in 2026, rising in the model to $606.69 million by 2035. The 2028 estimate is $417.20 million, with discounted values supplied for each year out to 2035. Simply Wall St extrapolates beyond the analyst horizon to build a full 10 year cash flow path. When all those projected cash flows are discounted back and combined, the DCF model produces an estimated intrinsic value of $195.96 per share. Against the recent share price of $76.82, this implies a 60.8% discount, which indicates that Greif is trading well below this model’s estimate of value. Result: UNDERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Greif is undervalued by 60.8%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 54 more high quality undervalued stocks. GEF Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Greif. Approach 2: Greif Price vs Earnings For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a common way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of current earnings. It ties the share price directly to the bottom line, which most investors naturally focus on when comparing companies. What counts as a “normal” P/E depends on what investors expect for future earnings growth and the level of risk they see in the business. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually points to a lower multiple. Greif currently trades on a P/E of 23.50x. That sits slightly above the Packaging industry average of 16.20x and close to the peer group average of 22.87x. Simply Wall St also provides a “Fair Ratio” of 17.77x, which is its view of a suitable P/E for Greif given factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, risk profile, industry and market cap. The Fair Ratio is more tailored than a basic peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for company specific characteristics rather than just lining Greif up against broad averages. Comparing the current P/E of 23.50x with the Fair Ratio of 17.77x suggests the shares are pricing in more than this model implies is warranted, so on this metric Greif appears overvalued. Result: OVERVALUED NYSE:GEF P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 23 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Greif Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives let you attach your own story about Greif to the numbers by linking your assumptions for revenue, earnings and margins to a forecast and a fair value, all in a simple tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that updates automatically when fresh news or earnings arrive. This then helps you compare that Fair Value to today’s price to decide if Greif looks attractive or expensive to you. As a result, one investor might build a Greif Narrative that lines up with a US$96.0 fair value and another might anchor on US$60.0, even though they are looking at the same company. For Greif however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Greif Narratives: Both are built from the same underlying data. They simply make different calls on how the business might use its capital, what happens to margins, and how much investors are willing to pay for those earnings. Your job is to decide which storyline feels closer to your own view, or to build something in between. 🐂 Greif Bull Case Fair value in this bullish narrative: US$96.00 per share Implied discount to that fair value at the last close of US$76.82: about 20% undervalued Revenue growth assumption used in this storyline: 2.12% a year  Assumes Greif benefits from capital deployment after the containerboard sale, with cost optimisation and over 70 ongoing work streams supporting margins and earnings power over time. Builds in steady revenue growth and higher profit margins, with analysts in this camp using earnings of US$376.2m and a P/E of 14.9x around 2028 to support a fair value of US$96.0. Sees sustainability, a broad global footprint and ongoing automation investment as important supports for cash flow, while acknowledging risks around regulation, product mix, competition and capital intensity.  🐻 Greif Bear Case Fair value in this bearish narrative: US$60.00 per share Implied premium to that fair value at the last close of US$76.82: about 28% overvalued Revenue growth assumption used in this storyline: 0.78% a year  Assumes that growth capital spending, cost savings and new technologies are being layered onto a muted demand backdrop, so returns on that investment and margin progress could be more limited than bulls expect. Uses relatively flat revenue, a move in profit margin to 6.4% and earnings of US$280.8m by 2029, together with a lower P/E of 12.0x, to arrive at a fair value of US$60.0. Flags the risk that heavy share repurchases, soft volumes in key end markets and slower than expected uptake of new products keep free cash flow and flexibility under pressure if conditions stay subdued.  Taken together, these two Narratives bracket a range of outcomes using the same raw information. You can treat them as starting points, adjust the assumptions to align with your own expectations for revenue, margins and valuation multiples, and see how that shifts Greif's implied value for you. Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives Do you think there's more to the story for Greif? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NYSE:GEF 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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