Is Moderna (MRNA) Pricing Reflect Its mRNA Pipeline Potential After 62% Year To Date Rally

Simply Wall St.02-23

If you are wondering whether Moderna's current share price still reflects its long term potential, you are not alone. This article focuses squarely on what the stock might be worth based on different ...

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This article focuses squarely on what the stock might be worth based on different ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmaceuticals-biotech/nasdaq-mrna/moderna/news/is-moderna-mrna-pricing-reflect-its-mrna-pipeline-potential\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4501","symbol_name":"段永平概念","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmaceuticals-biotech/nasdaq-mrna/moderna/news/is-moderna-mrna-pricing-reflect-its-mrna-pipeline-potential","article_id":"2613079822","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/company-cover/128680956-main-header/1756229826628"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmaceuticals-biotech/nasdaq-mrna/moderna/news/is-moderna-mrna-pricing-reflect-its-mrna-pipeline-potential","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2613079822","pubTimestamp":1771831138,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are wondering whether Moderna's current share price still reflects its long term potential, you are not alone. This article focuses squarely on what the stock might be worth based on different valuation lenses.\nModerna's share price closed at US$49.87, with returns of 18.1% over the last 7 days, 2.4% over 30 days and 61.6% year to date, while the 1 year return is 40.4% and the 3 and 5 year returns are negative at 64.2% and 67.8% respectively.\nRecent headlines have continued to focus...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4501":"段永平概念","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","MRNX":"Defiance Daily Target 2X Long MRNA ETF","MRNY":"MRNA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4139":"生物科技","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"translate_title":"Moderna(MRNA)的定价是否反映了其mRNA管道在今年迄今上涨62%后的潜力","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MRNX":0.6,"MRNA":1.5,"DCF":1,"MRNY":0.6},"content_text":"If you are wondering whether Moderna's current share price still reflects its long term potential, you are not alone. This article focuses squarely on what the stock might be worth based on different valuation lenses. Moderna's share price closed at US$49.87, with returns of 18.1% over the last 7 days, 2.4% over 30 days and 61.6% year to date, while the 1 year return is 40.4% and the 3 and 5 year returns are negative at 64.2% and 67.8% respectively. Recent headlines have continued to focus on Moderna's role in vaccines and broader mRNA technology, which helps frame how investors think about its pipeline and future revenue potential. At the same time, ongoing discussion around the sustainability of post pandemic demand has kept sentiment active and helps explain why the share price has seen periods of both strength and weakness. On our valuation checks, Moderna currently scores 3 out of 6. Next we will break down what different valuation methods say about that score, before finishing with a way to interpret valuation that can give you a fuller picture than any single model on its own.  Moderna delivered 40.4% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Biotechs industry. AdvertisementApproach 1: Moderna Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model looks at the cash Moderna is expected to generate in the future and discounts those projected cash flows back to today to estimate what the business might be worth now. For Moderna, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, built on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of about US$2.19b. Analyst estimates feed into the projections up to 2030, where free cash flow is expected to be US$571.5m, with later years extrapolated by Simply Wall St to reach into the low single digit billions of US$ free cash flow by 2035. Based on these projections, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of US$89.84 per share. Compared with the recent share price of US$49.87, this implies the stock is 44.5% undervalued according to this method alone. Result: UNDERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Moderna is undervalued by 44.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 54 more high quality undervalued stocks. MRNA Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Moderna. Approach 2: Moderna Price vs Sales For companies where earnings move around a lot or are not yet firmly positive, P/S is often more useful than P/E because it focuses on what the market is paying for each dollar of revenue rather than profit. Investors usually accept a higher P/S for businesses where they see stronger growth potential and lower risk, and a lower P/S where growth expectations are more modest or risks are higher. Moderna currently trades on a P/S ratio of 10.13x. That sits below the Biotechs industry average P/S of 12.01x, but above the peer group average of 5.07x. To go a step further, Simply Wall St calculates a Fair Ratio of 1.45x for Moderna. This Fair Ratio is a proprietary estimate of what P/S might be reasonable after considering factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, risk profile, industry and market cap, rather than relying only on broad peer or industry comparisons. Comparing Moderna's current 10.13x P/S to the Fair Ratio of 1.45x suggests the shares trade well above what this framework would view as a balanced level. Result: OVERVALUED NasdaqGS:MRNA P/S Ratio as at Feb 2026 P/S ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 22 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Moderna Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. On Simply Wall St's Community page you can use Narratives, where you tell a clear story about Moderna, link that story to your own forecast for revenue, earnings and margins, convert that into a Fair Value, then compare it to the current price to decide if the stock looks attractive or not. The Narrative automatically updates as new news or earnings arrive. This is why one investor might build a bullish Moderna story around a Fair Value of US$175.00 per share, while another might take a far more cautious view with a Fair Value of US$15.00. Both can see in one place how their assumptions feed through into numbers and a live decision framework. For Moderna however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Moderna Narratives: 🐂 Moderna Bull Case Fair value: US$175.00 per share Implied undervaluation vs last close: about 71.5% Assumed annual revenue growth: 48.43%  Argues that Moderna used its COVID 19 windfall to build a large mRNA pipeline while keeping a strong balance sheet and relatively low debt. Highlights that the shares trade below book value and that the stock pullback from the pandemic peak is viewed as an overreaction given the breadth of the pipeline. Frames Moderna as a lower risk biotech with multiple shots on goal, where existing cash and assets support the time it takes for pipeline programs to move from research into potential revenue.  🐻 Moderna Bear Case Fair value: US$38.80 per share Implied overvaluation vs last close: about 28.5% Assumed annual revenue growth: 11.47%  Focuses on the risk that slowing COVID 19 vaccine demand, competition in respiratory vaccines and ongoing seasonality keep revenue and earnings volatile. Raises concerns that heavy cost cuts, reliance on partners and tighter capital may limit the breadth and upside of the long term pipeline. Points to regulatory pressure, policy changes around vaccines and pricing, and binary oncology trial outcomes as key uncertainties for the long run earnings profile.  Do you think there's more to the story for Moderna? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NasdaqGS:MRNA 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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