Century Aluminum (CENX) Is Up 12.6% After Oklahoma Smelter Bet And U.S. Expansion Push – Has The Bull Case Changed?

Simply Wall St.02-24 15:25

Century Aluminum recently reported fourth-quarter 2025 results, with revenue of US$633.7 million and net income of US$1.8 million, and its CEO Jesse Gary has since presented the company’s outlook and ...

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Alongside these earnings, Century Aluminum is pushing ahead with an expansion of U.S. production and a new Oklahoma smelter project, signaling a major bet on reshoring and tariff-supported domestic aluminum output. We’ll now examine how Century Aluminum’s push to build a new Oklahoma smelter could reshape its investment narrative and future prospects. Uncover the next big thing with 31 elite penny stocks that balance risk and reward.AdvertisementCentury Aluminum Investment Narrative RecapTo own Century Aluminum today, you need to believe in its reshoring story and tariff-supported U.S. pricing while accepting thin current profitability and heavy project spend. The Oklahoma smelter plan and Mt. Holly ramp remain the key near term catalysts, with policy risk around tariffs and tax credits still the biggest swing factor. The latest Q4 2025 earnings, with net income at just US$1.8 million, do not materially change that risk reward balance in the short term. The most relevant recent announcement is the joint development agreement with Emirates Global Aluminium to build a 750,000 tonne per year smelter in Inola, Oklahoma. This project, now moving into preliminary engineering with Bechtel, sits at the center of the bullish case that Century can materially grow U.S. output and improve margins, but it also concentrates execution and policy risks if power costs, capital needs or trade protections shift unfavorably. Yet behind the growth story, investors should also be aware of how dependent this plan is on current U.S. tariff and tax credit frameworks... Read the full narrative on Century Aluminum (it's free!)Century Aluminum's narrative projects $3.0 billion revenue and $479.3 million earnings by 2028.Uncover how Century Aluminum's forecasts yield a $59.00 fair value, a 14% upside to its current price.Exploring Other PerspectivesCENX 1-Year Stock Price Chart Before this news, the most optimistic analysts were assuming earnings could reach about US$930.0 million by 2029, which is far more upbeat than consensus and leans heavily on projects like Oklahoma and Mt. Holly; given that views like this can differ widely, you should treat them as one possible path that may be revised as new information emerges.Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Century Aluminum - why the stock might be worth as much as 79% more than the current price!The Verdict Is YoursDisagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.A great starting point for your Century Aluminum research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.Our free Century Aluminum research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Century Aluminum's overall financial health at a glance.No Opportunity In Century Aluminum?Don't miss your shot at the next 10-bagger. Our latest stock picks just dropped:Rare earth metals are an input to most high-tech devices, military and defence systems and electric vehicles. The global race is on to secure supply of these critical minerals. Beat the pack to uncover the 30 best rare earth metal stocks of the very few that mine this essential strategic resource.Outshine the giants: these 24 early-stage AI stocks could fund your retirement.The future of work is here. Discover the 33 top robotics and automation stocks leading the charge in AI-driven automation and industrial transformation.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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