Is MP Materials (MP) Still Attractive After A 128% Yearly Surge And Recent Pullback

Simply Wall St.07:24

If you are wondering whether MP Materials shares still offer value after a strong run, this article will walk through what the current price might be implying. The stock last closed at US$55.34, with ...

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The stock last closed at US$55.34, with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/materials/nyse-mp/mp-materials/news/is-mp-materials-mp-still-attractive-after-a-128-yearly-surge\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"MP","symbol_name":"MP Materials Corp.","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/materials/nyse-mp/mp-materials/news/is-mp-materials-mp-still-attractive-after-a-128-yearly-surge","article_id":"2613272448","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/2052000-choice1-main-header/1585186836557"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/materials/nyse-mp/mp-materials/news/is-mp-materials-mp-still-attractive-after-a-128-yearly-surge","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2613272448","pubTimestamp":1771802666,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are wondering whether MP Materials shares still offer value after a strong run, this article will walk through what the current price might be implying.\nThe stock last closed at US$55.34, with a 1 year return of 127.7% despite a 4.6% decline over the past 7 days and a 20.5% decline over the last 30 days, while the year to date return sits at 0.7%.\nRecent coverage of MP Materials has focused on the company as a key rare earths producer in the US and on how its role in critical...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"MP":"MP Materials Corp.","LU0505663152.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - FUTURE MINERALS \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4168":"多种金属与采矿","MPG":"2倍做多MP ETF-Leverage Shares","MPL":"Defiance Daily Target 2X Long MP ETF"},"translate_title":"MP Materials(MP)在每年飙升128%和近期回调之后仍然有吸引力吗","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MP":1.98,"MPL":0.6,"MPG":0.6},"content_text":"If you are wondering whether MP Materials shares still offer value after a strong run, this article will walk through what the current price might be implying. The stock last closed at US$55.34, with a 1 year return of 127.7% despite a 4.6% decline over the past 7 days and a 20.5% decline over the last 30 days, while the year to date return sits at 0.7%. Recent coverage of MP Materials has focused on the company as a key rare earths producer in the US and on how its role in critical materials has kept investor attention on the stock. This context has framed the sharp share price gains over the past year alongside the shorter term pullback. On our valuation checklist, MP Materials currently scores 3 out of 6, which suggests some aspects of the stock look inexpensive while others appear more demanding. Next we will compare different valuation methods before turning to a more complete way of judging value at the end of the article.  MP Materials delivered 127.7% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Metals and Mining industry. AdvertisementApproach 1: MP Materials Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company could be worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back into today’s dollars. For MP Materials, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of $294.49 million, and analyst based projections show free cash flow remaining negative in 2026 to 2028 before turning positive, with $156 million in 2029 and $535 million in 2030. Beyond 2030, Simply Wall St extrapolates the cash flows, with projected figures rising into the $2.50b range by 2035. After discounting all these projected cash flows back to today, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of $159.02 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $55.34, this estimate suggests the stock trades at a 65.2% discount to that valuation, indicating that MP Materials appears significantly undervalued on this model alone. Result: UNDERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests MP Materials is undervalued by 65.2%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 54 more high quality undervalued stocks. MP Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for MP Materials. Approach 2: MP Materials Price vs Sales For companies that are not currently generating positive earnings, the P/S ratio is often more useful than P/E because it compares the share price with revenue rather than profits, which can be volatile or negative. In general, higher growth expectations and lower perceived risk tend to support a higher “normal” or “fair” multiple, while slower growth and higher risk usually line up with a lower one. It is therefore helpful to see where MP Materials sits on this spectrum. MP Materials currently trades on a P/S of 42.14x. This stands well above the Metals and Mining industry average P/S of 2.82x and the peer average of 0.92x. Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary “Fair Ratio” of 2.53x for MP Materials, which is the P/S multiple suggested by factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margin, market cap and identified risks. The Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple comparison to peers or the sector because it adjusts for company specific drivers like growth, risk profile and profitability, rather than assuming all miners deserve similar multiples. Comparing MP Materials’ current 42.14x P/S to the 2.53x Fair Ratio indicates that the shares are trading above that modelled range. Result: OVERVALUED NYSE:MP P/S Ratio as at Feb 2026 P/S ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 22 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your MP Materials Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. These are simply your own story about MP Materials, linked directly to a set of numbers such as your assumed fair value, and your view on future revenue, earnings and margins. This way, the company’s story connects to a forecast and then to a fair value that you can compare with today’s price inside the Narratives tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page. Because Narratives on Simply Wall St are live models, they automatically update when fresh information comes in, such as news, earnings or new guidance. Your story and fair value therefore stay current instead of being a one off spreadsheet exercise. For MP Materials, one investor might build a bullish Narrative closer to a fair value of about US$92.33, based on stronger growth and higher margins. Another might build a more cautious Narrative nearer US$30.00. Seeing both side by side next to the current share price can help you decide whether the stock appears richly priced, closer to a bargain, or somewhere in between according to your own assumptions. For MP Materials, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading MP Materials Narratives: 🐂 MP Materials Bull Case Fair value in this bullish Narrative: about US$79.29 per share. Implied discount to this fair value at US$55.34: around 30.2%. Revenue growth assumption: 59.48% a year.  Frames MP Materials as a rare earth producer with government backed contracts and long term supply deals that support revenue visibility and earnings clarity. Assumes expansion into higher margin processing, magnet manufacturing and recycling, supported by funding and policy support, with long run net profit margins of about 29.48% and a premium future P/E of 78.68x. Highlights key risks around execution of new facilities, dependence on a small group of large customers, contract constraints and potential regulatory or environmental costs that could affect future profitability.  🐻 MP Materials Bear Case Fair value in this more cautious Narrative: about US$50.85 per share. Implied premium to this fair value at US$55.34: around 8.8%. Revenue growth assumption: 59% a year.  Argues that MP Materials is currently priced for very strong outcomes, with the market already baking in a full transition from miner to high margin industrial manufacturer. Sets out bear, base and bull scenarios through 2030 that hinge on NdPr prices, magnet volumes, heavy rare earth contributions and EBITDA margins, with an assumed future P/E of 20x. Emphasises that while government support and vertical integration may limit downside, the shares only look appealing in this Narrative at a lower range around US$35 to US$40.  If you want to see how these Narratives are built number by number and how other investors are thinking about MP Materials, you can use the full set of community Narratives to stress test your own assumptions and see where you sit between the bull and bear views. Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives Do you think there's more to the story for MP Materials? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NYSE:MP 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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