A Look At BHP Group’s (ASX:BHP) Valuation After Strong Earnings Copper Upgrade And Interim Dividend

Simply Wall St.03:23

BHP Group (ASX:BHP) has just paired stronger half year 2026 earnings with higher copper production guidance and an interim dividend, a combination that helps explain why the stock has recently pushed ...

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This suggests momentum has been building as investors react to...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":["rate","earning"],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BHP.AU":"BHP GROUP LTD","COPX":"铜矿ETF-Global X","BHP":"必和必拓公司"},"translate_title":"强劲盈利铜升级和中期股息后必和必拓集团(ASX：BHP)的估值一览","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BHP":1.5,"BHP.AU":1.5,"COPX":1.5},"content_text":"BHP Group (ASX:BHP) has just paired stronger half year 2026 earnings with higher copper production guidance and an interim dividend, a combination that helps explain why the stock has recently pushed to a new 52 week high. See our latest analysis for BHP Group. The recent run to A$54.02 comes on the back of a 1 day share price return of 1.29%, a 30 day share price return of 11.54% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 38.11%. This suggests momentum has been building as investors react to upgraded copper guidance, fresh M&A activity around the San Manuel asset and the Antamina silver streaming deal. If BHP’s move has you looking across the resources space, this is a good moment to scan our 8 top copper producer stocks for other copper focused opportunities that may fit your watchlist. With BHP now trading slightly above the average analyst price target and carrying a weaker value score of 3, the key question is whether recent copper guidance and deals leave upside on the table, or if the market is already pricing in future growth. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 2.7% Undervalued According to Bailey’s widely followed narrative, BHP’s fair value of A$55.50 sits only slightly above the last close at A$54.02, which keeps the focus firmly on the long run copper and potash story rather than any quick win.  Significant exposure to future-facing commodities such as copper and potash positions BHP to benefit from increased demand driven by electrification, urbanization, and the global energy transition. This is likely to support long-term revenue growth.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what is sitting behind that price gap. The narrative leans heavily on copper volumes, potash ramp up and firm profit margins. The exact mix of growth, returns and cash generation assumptions matters. If you want to see how those ingredients combine to reach A$55.50, the full narrative lays out the numbers in black and white. Result: Fair Value of A$55.50 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, there are clear pressure points too, especially if Chinese steel demand weakens or cost overruns at Jansen and other big projects start to have an impact. Find out about the key risks to this BHP Group narrative. Another Way To Look At Value There is a wrinkle here. Our DCF model points to a fair value of A$39.37 per share, well below the current A$54.02. On that basis BHP screens as overvalued. This raises a simple question for you as an investor: do you trust the market or the cash flow math? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. BHP Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out BHP Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 7 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity. Next Steps If this mix of optimism and concern feels finely balanced, take a close look at the numbers yourself and decide quickly where you stand. You can start with our 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign. Looking for more investment ideas? If BHP has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Broadening your watchlist with fresh ideas now could be the edge you regret skipping later.  Start with consistency by scanning our 11 dividend fortresses that may help you find income ideas with yields that stand out from the market. Hunt for quality at a price using the screener containing 13 high quality undiscovered gems that can surface under the radar companies with fundamentals that might deserve a closer look. Prioritise resilience through the 7 resilient stocks with low risk scores which highlights businesses that align with a more cautious approach to portfolio construction.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if BHP Group might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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