A Fictional 2028 'Macro Memo' Just Drew A Nightmare Map For Infosys, TCS, And Wipro

Benzinga02-23 22:52

Citrini Research, the macro-focused investment publication, published a thought experiment on Sunday, framed as a fictional “Macro Memo” dated June 30, 2028. The piece, titled “The 2028 Global ...

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The research note argues that India’s IT services sector was built on a single value proposition: Indian developers cost a fraction of their American counterparts.\nThat moat, the authors contend, evaporates when AI enters the picture.\nIndia currently exports over $200 billion annually in IT services, described in the note as “the single largest contributor to India’s current account surplus and the offset that financed its persistent goods trade deficit.”\nIn Citrini’s scenario, as that surplus evaporates, the rupee falls 18% against the dollar in just four months, ultimately prompting the International Monetary Fund to begin “preliminary discussions” with New Delhi by the first quarter of 2028.\nCitrini traces the disruption to late 2025, when agentic coding tools made a major leap in capability. Tools like Claude Code and Codex reportedly enabled skilled developers to recreate mid-market SaaS products in weeks, reshaping enterprise buy-versus-build decisions.\nAs enterprises realize they can build instead of buy, Citrini argues the IT outsourcing model begins to erode. If Fortune 500 firms can replicate six-figure solutions internally in weeks, the case for large offshore IT contracts weakens significantly.\nThe authors are careful to distinguish the piece from outright forecasting, noting: “We are certain some of these scenarios won’t materialize. We’re equally certain that machine intelligence will continue to accelerate.”\nPhoto by Jonathan Weiss via Shutterstock\nThis content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2613385667","isCrawlerRequest":true}