Assessing Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) Valuation After Share Price Pullback And GLP 1 Growth Prospects

Simply Wall St.03:26

AdvertisementRecent performance snapshot and business overview Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) has drawn investor attention after a one month return showing a 24% decline and a past three month gain of 5%, ...

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The Denmark based pharmaceutical group reports annual revenue of DKK 309,064.0 and net income of DKK 102,434.0, with both revenue and net income growth stated at about 4%, anchored by its obesity, diabetes care, and rare disease segments. See our latest analysis for Novo Nordisk. Recent trading shows momentum fading, with a 30 day share price return of a 23.84% decline and a 1 year total shareholder return of a 45.09% decline setting a weaker tone, despite a 5.45% gain over 90 days. If Novo Nordisk’s recent pullback has you reassessing healthcare exposure, you might want to see what else is out there through our screen of 27 healthcare AI stocks as a starting list of ideas. With Novo Nordisk trading at $47.42, showing a 66% intrinsic discount and sitting about 25% below analyst targets, you have to ask: is this a genuine entry point, or is the market already pricing in future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 50.1% Undervalued The most followed narrative pegs Novo Nordisk’s fair value at about $95 per share, roughly double the recent $47.42 close. This sets up a clear valuation gap for investors to weigh.  Crucially, the market appears to assign little to no value to Novo’s development-stage pipeline beyond Wegovy. A sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) framework suggests that even conservatively discounting the cash flows from Ozempic/Wegovy implies that the pipeline, including oral GLP-1, amycretin, and NASH candidates, is being valued at or near zero.  Read the complete narrative. Curious how a company with high margins, a GLP-1 franchise, and a maturing obesity pill still screens as undervalued? The narrative leans on specific assumptions around future earnings power, market share resilience, and the potential valuation multiple of those earnings. If you want to see exactly how those moving parts stack up into a $95 fair value, the full narrative lays out the numbers in detail. Result: Fair Value of $95 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this story could change quickly if competitive obesity drugs win share faster than expected or if US pricing reforms bite harder into GLP 1 profits. Find out about the key risks to this Novo Nordisk narrative. Next Steps If this mix of risks and upside potential feels finely balanced, it is worth taking a closer look now and forming your own view with 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs. Looking for more investment ideas? If Novo Nordisk has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. The next step is lining up fresh ideas so you are not relying on a single story.  Spot potential value opportunities early by running through our list of screener containing 23 high quality undiscovered gems with fundamentals that may not be widely appreciated yet. Strengthen the quality of your watchlist by filtering for companies in the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (43 results) that can better withstand financial stress. Build a more income focused approach by scanning the 15 dividend fortresses that combine higher yields with an emphasis on resilience.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Novo Nordisk might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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