Is HF Sinclair (DINO) Still Attractive After Recent Share Price Volatility?

Simply Wall St.02-24 19:21

If you are wondering whether HF Sinclair is still good value after its recent run, or if the price already reflects most of the story, this article will walk you through what the current share price ...

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The stock recently closed at US$49.59, with a 7 day return of 15.3% decline, a 30 day return of 0.8% decline, a 1 year return of 41.1% and a 5 year return of 50.6%. These moves sit against a backdrop of ongoing interest in US energy stocks, where investors have been weighing factors like refinery utilization, product demand and broader market sentiment toward the sector. HF Sinclair remains part of those conversations as investors compare it with other refiners and energy companies when assessing risk and potential return. On our checks for undervaluation, HF Sinclair currently scores 4 out of 6. Next, we will look at how different valuation approaches line up with that score and why a more complete framework later in the article can help you interpret it.  HF Sinclair delivered 41.1% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Oil and Gas industry. AdvertisementApproach 1: HF Sinclair Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company might be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to a present value. For HF Sinclair, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on cash flow projections in $. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $773.2 million. Analyst estimates and extrapolations point to free cash flow of $866.5 million in 2026 and $955 million in 2027, then continue with Simply Wall St projections out to 2035, reaching $1,402.9 million in that year. Values beyond the explicit analyst period are extrapolated rather than based on direct analyst forecasts. Bringing all those projected cash flows back to today results in an estimated intrinsic value of about $155.65 per share. At the recent share price of $49.59, the model suggests the stock trades at a 68.1% discount to this estimate. This indicates that HF Sinclair appears significantly undervalued on this DCF view. Result: UNDERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests HF Sinclair is undervalued by 68.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 56 more high quality undervalued stocks. DINO Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for HF Sinclair. Approach 2: HF Sinclair Price vs Earnings For profitable companies like HF Sinclair, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand for how much investors are paying for each dollar of earnings. It ties the share price directly to the business’s current profitability, which many investors treat as a core anchor for value. What counts as a “normal” P/E depends a lot on what the market expects. Higher growth expectations or lower perceived risk can justify a higher multiple, while slower growth or higher risk usually lines up with a lower one. HF Sinclair currently trades at about 15.75x earnings. That is close to the Oil and Gas industry average of about 14.15x and sits well below the peer group average of about 34.95x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio is 19.75x for HF Sinclair. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be based on factors like earnings growth, profit margins, the company’s size, its industry and key risks. Because it pulls these pieces together, it can be more informative than a simple comparison with the industry or a peer set. With the current P/E of 15.75x sitting below the Fair Ratio of 19.75x, HF Sinclair screens as undervalued on this metric. Result: UNDERVALUED NYSE:DINO P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 22 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your HF Sinclair Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page. There you attach a clear story about HF Sinclair to hard numbers like your assumed fair value, revenue, earnings and margin forecasts. You can then see how that story compares with today’s price. It updates automatically as fresh news or earnings arrive, and can differ widely between investors. For example, one investor might have a more optimistic HF Sinclair view with a fair value of about US$98.48, another might take a more cautious view closer to US$38.47, while others may be around the analyst consensus near US$60.43. All of these views use the same company data but reflect different convictions about the future. Do you think there's more to the story for HF Sinclair? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NYSE:DINO 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if HF Sinclair might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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