Options Corner: Reignited Tariff Fears Facilitate A Contrarian Position In Super Micro Computer

Benzinga_recent_news02-24 05:11

Naturally, the high-level whipsaw action created great uncertainty for the market, leading to a sharp downturn for the major indices. Caught in the political crossfire was SMCI stock, which slipped ...

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Caught in the political crossfire was SMCI stock, which slipped ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/26/02/50799248/super-micro-smci-stock-tariff-fears-contrarian-bullish-trade\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"benzinga_recent_news","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Options Corner: Reignited Tariff Fears Facilitate A Contrarian Position In Super Micro Computer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOptions Corner: Reignited Tariff Fears Facilitate A Contrarian Position In Super Micro Computer\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-24 05:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/26/02/50799248/super-micro-smci-stock-tariff-fears-contrarian-bullish-trade><strong>Benzinga_recent_news</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Naturally, the high-level whipsaw action created great uncertainty for the market, leading to a sharp downturn for the major indices. Caught in the political crossfire was SMCI stock, which slipped ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/26/02/50799248/super-micro-smci-stock-tariff-fears-contrarian-bullish-trade\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SMCI","symbol_name":"超微电脑","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/26/02/50799248/super-micro-smci-stock-tariff-fears-contrarian-bullish-trade","article_id":"2613730327","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2026/02/23/Supermicro-Computer-Logo-On-Smartphone-S.jpeg?optimize=medium&dpr=2&auto=webp&width=240"],"rights":{"source":"benzinga_recent_news","url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/26/02/50799248/super-micro-smci-stock-tariff-fears-contrarian-bullish-trade","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2613730327","pubTimestamp":1771881060,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"benzinga_recent_news","name":"Benzinga"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"While Super Micro Computer got caught amid recent tariff-related anxieties, the smart money seems relatively confident about SMCI stock.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"SMCI":"超微电脑","SMCY":"SMCI期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","BK4588":"碎股","SMYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST SMCI ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)","BK4543":"AI","SMCZ":"2倍做空SMCI ETF-Defiance","SMCL":"2倍做多SMCI ETF-Graniteshares","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","SMCX":"2倍做多SMCI ETF-Defiance","SMCC":"Defiance Leveraged Long + Income SMCI ETF","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行"},"translate_title":"期权角：重新点燃的关税担忧促进了超微计算机的逆向头寸","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SMCI":1.97,"SMCL":0.6,"SMCY":0.6,"SMCX":0.6,"SMYY":0.6,"SMCZ":0.6,"SMCC":0.6},"content_text":"Naturally, the high-level whipsaw action created great uncertainty for the market, leading to a sharp downturn for the major indices. Caught in the political crossfire was SMCI stock, which slipped about 5% in afternoon trading. Over the past 52 weeks, the security slipped more than 40%. Despite the volatility and the unfavorable macro backdrop, though, the smart money doesn't seem too anxious.\nIn the case of SMCI stock, for the March 20 expiration date, the skew is relatively flat and calm for strikes near the spot price. This setup suggests that no real urgency exists to hedge against uncertainty for strikes likely to be triggered due to close proximity to spot.\nTo be sure, smart money traders are prioritizing downside volatility protection. Notably, put IV swings upward on the left boundaries (toward lower strike prices). However, the rise is controlled, implying no real urgency beyond what is typical for a high-beta growth stock.\nAgain, after a sizable loss in SMCI stock over the trailing year, you would expect more concerted efforts to mitigate downside risk. That such a signal failed to materialize may imply a soft hint that the worst of the volatility could be baked in.\nWhere does this dispersion come from? Black-Scholes assumes a world where stock market returns are lognormally distributed. Under this framework, the above range represents where SMCI stock may symmetrically fall one standard deviation away from spot (while accounting for volatility and days to expiration).\nFrom a mathematical perspective, Black-Scholes basically claims that in 68% of cases, Super Micro Computer stock would be expected to trade within the prescribed range when March 20 rolls around. It's a reasonable assumption since movements above one standard deviation above spot are relatively rare.\nNow, the conceptual dead end that we run into with the expected move calculation is that we only know how the market is pricing uncertainty, not whether this pricing is rationally justified. To extract even more insights, we need to gravitate toward second-order analyses, which condition observed data based on an empirical anchor.\nIn my view, the best analogy to explain the conundrum above is to consider a typical search-and-rescue (SAR) mission. If Super Micro stock were a lone shipwrecked survivor, then Black-Scholes would be the satellite system that identified a distress signal somewhere in the open water. From the position of the distress signal, we can map out a search radius (expected move).\nHowever, because we live in a world of limited resources, we can't scour every square inch of the radius. We need to be smart with our constraints, which means that we need to use probabilistic math. This is where the Markov property comes into the picture.\nUnder Markov, the future state of a system depends entirely on the present state. Colloquially, forward probabilities should not be calculated independently but be assessed in context. Extending the SAR analogy, different ocean currents — such as choppy waves versus calm waters — can easily influence where a shipwrecked survivor is likely to drift.\nHere's how the Markov property is relevant for Super Micro Computer stock. In the past five weeks, SMCI stock printed three up weeks, leading to an overall upward slope. There's nothing special about this 3-2-U sequence, per se. However, this quantitative signal represents a specific ocean current — and survivors caught in these waters would be expected to drift in a particular manner.\nHow do we determine this drift pattern? We can reference past analogs of the 3-2-U sequence to map out a probabilistic forward distribution. Technically, we can use a combination of enumerative induction and Bayesian-inspired inference to best estimate SMCI's forward trajectory over the next five weeks.\nFor full transparency, you should realize that the future is not necessarily compelled by the past, per David Hume's famous critique of inductive methodologies. At the same time, this objection applies to all market methodologies: fundamental, technical and quantitative. My counterargument is that induction arguably offers the best estimate while incorporating the fewest assumptions.\nIf you accept the above premise, the inductive approach combined with the Markov property calculates a forward five-week distribution landing between $30 and $34, with probability density peaking around $32.60. Based on the above market intelligence, I'm tempted by the 32/33 bull call spread expiring March 20.\nThis wager requires a net debit of $43, which is the most that can be lost. Should SMCI stock rise through the $33 strike at expiration, the maximum profit would be $57, a payout of roughly 133%. Breakeven lands at $32.43, which is near the aforementioned quant signal's peak probability density.\nImage: Shutterstock\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2613730327","isCrawlerRequest":true}