Analyst says Bitcoin has 88% chance of rising to $122K by late 2026

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Economist Timothy Peterson says Bitcoin may have strong odds of rising over the next 10 months. Summary Economist Timothy Peterson says Bitcoin has an 88% chance of trading higher in 10 months, ...

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Based on historical data going back to 2011, that reading implies an 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now.Peterson estimates the average forward return at exp(60%)  1, or about 82%. That would translate to a BTC price near $122,000 over the next 10 months, based on current levels.He described the indicator as an informal cycle tool. It measures frequency, no","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"crypto.news","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"83042":"华夏比特币-R","BK1611":"加密货币现货ETF","BK4594":"比特币ETF概念","BK4601":"加密货币现货ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BITX":"2倍比特币期货ETF-Volatility Shares","BK4588":"碎股","BITO":"比特币期货ETF-ProShares","BTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust"},"translate_title":"分析师表示，到2026年底，比特币有88%的机会升至12.2万美元","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"83042":0.6,"BTC":1.98,"BITO":0.6,"BITX":0.6},"content_text":"Economist Timothy Peterson says Bitcoin may have strong odds of rising over the next 10 months.\n\n\nSummary\n\n\n\nEconomist Timothy Peterson says Bitcoin has an 88% chance of trading higher in 10 months, based on a cycle metric tracking positive months over the past 24 months.\nHis model, using data back to 2011, implies an average forward return of 82%, pointing to a potential price near $122,000.\nThe outlook sparked mixed reactions, with some calling it a strong historical signal and others warning that Bitcoin may not follow past averages.\n\n\n\nTimothy Peterson’s model points to $122K Bitcoin\nIn a post on X, he noted that 50% of the past 24 months have closed positively for Bitcoin (BTC). Based on historical data going back to 2011, that reading implies an 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now.\nPeterson estimates the average forward return at exp(60%) − 1, or about 82%. That would translate to a BTC price near $122,000 over the next 10 months, based on current levels.\n\nHe described the indicator as an informal cycle tool. It measures frequency, not magnitude. In other words, it counts how many months were positive, not how large the gains were. \n\nThis is an informal metric I use to track Bitcoin cycles.  It counts the number of positive months out of the past 24.This metric measures frequency, not magnitude.  So Bitcoin could trend sideways for months and this metric could still go down.  But it is still very useful for… pic.twitter.com/D4sbDoNcqL— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) February 20, 2026\n\nBitcoin could move sideways for months and the metric could still fall. Even so, Peterson says it has helped identify inflection points in past cycles.\nA chart shared with the post shows that stronger readings in positive-month frequency have historically aligned with higher forward returns.\nNevertheless, the posts drew divided reactions from users on X.\nOne user called it a “rare confluence of historical data,” arguing the setup points to a major recovery by the end of 2026. The 82% expected return, they said, remains a guiding signal for long-term investors.\nOthers were more cautious. One user wrote “Bitcoin doesn’t give a damn about historical averages.”\n\n\n\n\n\n                Read more:\n            \n\n                Binance highlights 97% cut in sanctioned market exposure","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2613788587","isCrawlerRequest":true}