Assessing Greatland Resources (ASX:GGP) Valuation After Profit Surge And Havieron Project Progress

Simply Wall St.02-26 13:30

AdvertisementEarnings shock and project progress put Greatland Resources (ASX:GGP) in focus Greatland Resources (ASX:GGP) has drawn fresh attention after reporting half year sales of A$977.34 million ...

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See our latest analysis for Greatland Resources. The latest half year earnings and Havieron progress have come alongside strong recent momentum, with a 9.11% 7 day share price return and an 82.58% 90 day share price return. The year to date share price return of 27.08% points to interest building over a longer stretch. If this gold copper story has your attention, it could be a good time to widen the lens and see what stands out in our 26 elite gold producer stocks screener as another potential source of ideas. With a 210.92% intrinsic discount estimate, strong recent share price gains and the Havieron growth story taking shape, the key question is whether Greatland Resources still trades below its fundamentals or if the market is already pricing in future growth. Price-to-Earnings of 14x: Is it justified? On a P/E of 14x, Greatland Resources screens as inexpensive compared to both its own fair P/E estimate and to other Australian metals and mining names, based on the latest data. The P/E ratio compares the current share price to earnings per share, so it reflects what the market is willing to pay for each dollar of profit. For a producer of gold and copper, this matters because earnings can be closely tied to commodity prices and project performance, which investors often price differently to other sectors. According to the checks provided, Greatland Resources trades at a P/E of 14x, while the estimated fair P/E is 16x, and peers in the same industry sit higher again at 24.4x and a broader peer group at 34.3x. That combination points to the market assigning a lower earnings multiple than both the company specific fair ratio suggests and what similar businesses currently trade on, a gap that could close if sentiment or earnings expectations shift. Compared with the Australian metals and mining industry average P/E of 24.4x and a wider peer average of 34.3x, Greatland Resources' 14x multiple is materially lower. Against the estimated fair P/E ratio of 16x, the current level also sits below the level the fair ratio model indicates the market could move towards over time. Explore the SWS fair ratio for Greatland Resources Result: Price-to-Earnings of 14x (UNDERVALUED) However, the Havieron story still hinges on successful project delivery and earnings sustainability in a sector where commodity prices and annual net income can be volatile catalysts. Find out about the key risks to this Greatland Resources narrative. Another view on value: what the DCF is saying While the 14x P/E points to Greatland Resources looking inexpensive against peers, our DCF model adds a different angle. With the shares at A$13.42 and our future cash flow value at A$17.01, the model suggests the stock trades at a very clear discount. The real question is which signal you trust more: earnings today, or the cash flows implied ahead. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. GGP Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Greatland Resources for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 6 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity. Next Steps If this has you torn between the upside story and the risks on the table, do not sit on the fence. Instead, check the balance of 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs and decide where you stand. Looking for more investment ideas? If Greatland Resources has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with other ideas that match the kind of opportunities you want to target.  Target value first and see which companies our 6 high quality undervalued stocks highlight as combining quality fundamentals with attractive pricing. Prioritise resilience by scanning the 6 resilient stocks with low risk scores that screen well on our risk checks and business stability metrics. Hunt for future leaders hiding in plain sight with our screener containing 12 high quality undiscovered gems that pair solid fundamentals with relatively low current visibility.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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