A Look At Molina Healthcare (MOH) Valuation After Mixed Q4 Results Downgrades And Legal Scrutiny

Simply Wall St.02-27 01:37

Molina Healthcare (MOH) is back in focus after mixed fourth quarter results, earnings that missed expectations, multiple analyst downgrades, and a new shareholder law firm investigation into medical ...

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The 1 year...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":["rate"],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"MOH":"Molina Healthcare Inc","XLV":"健康照护类股ETF-SPDR","MOH.AU":"MOHO RESOURCES LTD"},"translate_title":"第四季度业绩降级和法律审查好坏参半后莫利纳医疗保健(MOH)估值一览","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MOH":1.5,"MOH.AU":1.5,"XLV":1.5},"content_text":"Molina Healthcare (MOH) is back in focus after mixed fourth quarter results, earnings that missed expectations, multiple analyst downgrades, and a new shareholder law firm investigation into medical cost disclosures and growth assumptions. See our latest analysis for Molina Healthcare. That mixed fourth quarter and the string of downgrades have been reflected in the price, with a 30 day share price return of 27.6% decline and a year to date share price return of 18.4% decline. The 1 year total shareholder return is down 48.9%, pointing to fading momentum as investors reassess risk and future Medicaid profitability. If this kind of volatility has you looking beyond a single insurer, it may be a time to scan a broader set of health related names using our 30 healthcare AI stocks as a starting list of ideas. With the shares now down sharply and trading at a discount to the average analyst price target, the key question is whether recent bad news already reflects Molina’s risks or if the market remains skeptical about its prospects. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 64.6% Undervalued Compared with the last close of $145.55, the most followed narrative pegs Molina Healthcare’s fair value at $411.65, a large gap that frames today’s debate around the stock.  Catalysts • Membership Growth: MOH has seen a 9% increase in members year over year, reaching approximately 5.7 million members as of March 31, 2024. This growth is driven by new contract wins, acquisitions, and expansion.  Read the complete narrative. Want to understand why this narrative leans so heavily on membership momentum and premium volume. The assumptions link steady enrollment gains with improving margins and a richer earnings profile. Curious how those building blocks support that tripled fair value figure. Result: Fair Value of $411.65 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this upbeat story can unravel quickly if medical costs rise faster than expected or if Medicaid redeterminations cut deeper into membership and premium revenue. Find out about the key risks to this Molina Healthcare narrative. Next Steps Given the mixed tone around risks and potential rewards, it makes sense to review the full picture yourself and move quickly to shape your own view with 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign. Looking for more investment ideas? If Molina’s story has you rethinking your next move, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist now so you are not late to the next opportunity.  Target resilient returns by scanning a curated list of income names through our 15 dividend fortresses that focus on higher yielding payouts. Spot potential value early by reviewing our screener containing 23 high quality undiscovered gems that highlights companies with strong fundamentals flying under most radars. Prioritise capital preservation by checking companies in our 80 resilient stocks with low risk scores that carry lower risk scores and steadier profiles.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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