Assessing TPG Telecom’s Valuation As Spacetalk Software Partnership Progresses Toward Binding Agreement

Simply Wall St.02-27 03:45

The new Memorandum of Understanding between TPG Telecom (ASX:TPG) and Spacetalk to distribute Family Safety software to Vodafone postpaid customers puts TPG’s role in embedded software partnerships in...

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This pattern suggests momentum has been...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"TPG.AU":"TPG TELECOM LTD","TPG":"TPG, Inc.","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行","BK7042":"综合电信业务"},"translate_title":"随着Spacetalk软件合作伙伴关系向具有约束力的协议迈进，评估TPG Telecom的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DCF":1,"TPG":1.5,"TPG.AU":1},"content_text":"The new Memorandum of Understanding between TPG Telecom (ASX:TPG) and Spacetalk to distribute Family Safety software to Vodafone postpaid customers puts TPG’s role in embedded software partnerships in the spotlight for shareholders. See our latest analysis for TPG Telecom. At a share price of A$4.05, TPG Telecom has a 1 day share price return of 3.58%, adding to a 90 day share price return of 8.00% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 30.67%. This pattern suggests momentum has been building rather than fading. If this shift toward embedded software partnerships has your attention, it could be a good moment to broaden your watchlist with our 2 top founder-led companies as another source of potential ideas. With TPG trading close to analyst targets and carrying an intrinsic value premium, yet showing strong recent share price momentum, should you see room for mispricing here or assume the market is already pricing in future growth? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 5.4% Undervalued With TPG Telecom's most followed narrative pointing to a fair value of A$4.28 against a last close of A$4.05, the story hinges on what its 5G and digital investments could mean for future cash generation and margins.  Material network and IT investment cycles including 5G rollout, Huawei equipment replacement, and brand system overhauls are now largely complete, setting up a multi-year period of structurally lower capex. This will directly boost free cash flow conversion and capital returns, while also enabling cost-outs ($100m targeted by 2029) to flow through to net profit.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what earnings profile and margin shape sit behind that fair value, and how lower capex, forecast profitability and a higher future earnings multiple all fit together? The full narrative lays out the cash flow story line by line, including the trade off between modest revenue expectations and a much stronger profit base. Result: Fair Value of A$4.28 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, there is still real execution risk, especially if intense mobile and broadband competition crimps margins or complex IT consolidation and cyber issues disrupt customer service. Find out about the key risks to this TPG Telecom narrative. Another View: Cash Flows Paint A Different Picture While the popular narrative sees TPG Telecom as 5.4% undervalued with a fair value of A$4.28, our DCF model points the other way. On future cash flows, TPG is estimated at A$3.50, below the current A$4.05 share price. This frames the stock as overvalued by this method. As an investor, which story do you think better reflects the risks around execution, competition, and profitability turning around? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. TPG Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out TPG Telecom for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 9 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity. Next Steps If this mix of upside and concern leaves you on the fence, take a moment now to weigh both sides for yourself using 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign. Looking for more investment ideas? If you are weighing different stories and valuations, it makes sense to widen your opportunity set now rather than wait for headlines to force your hand.  Spot potential value early by checking out 9 high quality undervalued stocks that pair solid fundamentals with prices that may not fully reflect their quality. Prioritise resilience by scanning 7 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on stability so sudden surprises are less likely to catch you off guard. Get ahead of the crowd by reviewing our screener containing 11 high quality undiscovered gems before they attract wider attention and tighter pricing.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if TPG Telecom might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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