How Investors May Respond To AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Winning SDA Deal For Defense Satellite Communications

Simply Wall St.02-26 13:24

In February 2026, AST SpaceMobile, Inc. announced it had secured a US$30.00 million agreement with the U.S. Space Development Agency under the HALO program, using its BlueBird satellite constellation ...

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This Europa Track 2 contract highlights how AST SpaceMobile’s commercial, software-defined “bent-pipe” architecture is being adapted for defense applications, potentially broadening its role in U.S. national security communications. We’ll now examine how this new SDA defense contract, alongside AST SpaceMobile’s recent billion-dollar convertible financing, reshapes its investment narrative. This technology could replace computers: discover 22 stocks that are working to make quantum computing a reality.AdvertisementAST SpaceMobile Investment Narrative RecapTo own AST SpaceMobile, you need to believe its direct to device network can scale from R&D into a functioning global service, supported by mobile operator and government demand. The new US$30.00 million SDA HALO contract reinforces the near term defense opportunity and validates its BlueBird technology, but the main catalyst remains successful constellation deployment, while the largest risk is still execution and cost control in a capital intensive buildout. Against that backdrop, the recent US$1.075 billion convertible notes raise matters because it extends the funding runway for satellite launches and spectrum rollout. It also reshapes the capital structure at a time when AST SpaceMobile is committing more than US$21.00 million per satellite, helping it pursue SDA work and commercial service activation while shifting some risk from debt holders to shareholders through potential dilution. Yet behind the high profile defense win, investors should also be aware that... Read the full narrative on AST SpaceMobile (it's free!)AST SpaceMobile's narrative projects $2.1 billion revenue and $2.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 385.7% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $2.4 billion from -$303.8 million today.Uncover how AST SpaceMobile's forecasts yield a $71.51 fair value, a 13% downside to its current price.Exploring Other PerspectivesASTS 1-Year Stock Price Chart Some of the lowest analysts were already assuming AST SpaceMobile could reach about US$1.9 billion of revenue and US$1.7 billion of earnings by 2029, yet compared with the fresh SDA contract and risks around satellite deployment timing, these forecasts show how sharply views can differ and why you may want to compare several narratives before deciding what you believe.Explore 58 other fair value estimates on AST SpaceMobile - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!Decide For YourselfDon't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.A great starting point for your AST SpaceMobile research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.Our free AST SpaceMobile research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate AST SpaceMobile's overall financial health at a glance.Searching For A Fresh Perspective?Opportunities like this don't last. These are today's most promising picks. Check them out now:Find 53 companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.The best AI stocks today may lie beyond giants like Nvidia and Microsoft. Find the next big opportunity with these 23 smaller AI-focused companies with strong growth potential through early-stage innovation in machine learning, automation, and data intelligence that could fund your retirement.Invest in the nuclear renaissance through our list of 84 elite nuclear energy infrastructure plays powering the global AI revolution.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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