Circle Internet Group Q4 EPS Recovery Tests Bullish Profitability Narrative

Simply Wall St.02-26 13:28

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) just posted its FY 2025 Q4 numbers, with revenue of US$770.2 million and basic EPS of US$0.56, against a trailing twelve month revenue base of US$2.7 billion and basic EPS...

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The company has seen quarterly revenue move from US$435.4 million in Q4 2024 to US$770.2 million in Q4 2025. Basic EPS shifted from US$0.08 in Q4 2024 through a volatile FY 2025 that included a US$4.48 loss in Q2 before settling at US$0.56 in Q4. This sets the stage for...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":["earning"],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BLSX":"Tradr 2X Long BLSH Daily ETF","CCUP":"T-REX 2x Long CRCL Daily Target ETF","CRCL":"Circle Internet Corp.","CRCA":"Proshares Ultra CRCL","BLSG":"2倍做多BLSH ETF-Leverage Shares","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1861217088.USD":"贝莱德金融科技A2","CRCO":"YIELDMAX CRCL OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF","CRCD":"T-REX 2X Inverse CRCLDaily Target ETF","CRCG":"2倍做多CRCL ETF-Leverage Shares","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","LU2360107671.USD":"BGF FINTECH \"A4\" (USD) INC","ICRC":"Bitwise CRCL Option Income Strategy ETF","LU1861220207.SGD":"Blackrock FinTech A2 SGD-H","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H"},"translate_title":"Circle Internet Group第四季度每股收益复苏测试看涨盈利叙事","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ICRC":0.6,"CCUP":0.6,"CRCD":0.6,"CRCL":1.98,"CRCA":0.6,"BLSG":0.6,"CRCO":0.6,"CRCG":0.6,"BLSX":0.6},"content_text":"Circle Internet Group (CRCL) just posted its FY 2025 Q4 numbers, with revenue of US$770.2 million and basic EPS of US$0.56, against a trailing twelve month revenue base of US$2.7 billion and basic EPS of US$0.44 loss. The company has seen quarterly revenue move from US$435.4 million in Q4 2024 to US$770.2 million in Q4 2025. Basic EPS shifted from US$0.08 in Q4 2024 through a volatile FY 2025 that included a US$4.48 loss in Q2 before settling at US$0.56 in Q4. This sets the stage for investors to focus squarely on how sustainably margins are being rebuilt. See our full analysis for Circle Internet Group. With the latest figures on the table, the next step is to set these results against the most common narratives around Circle, highlighting where the growth and margin story lines up with expectations and where it might surprise you. See what the community is saying about Circle Internet Group NYSE:CRCL Revenue & Expenses Breakdown as at Feb 2026 AdvertisementTTM still loss making at US$69.5 million  On a trailing 12 month basis to Q4 2025, Circle reports US$2.7b in revenue and a net loss of US$69.5 million, compared with US$1.7b in revenue and US$19.4 million net income on the trailing view at Q4 2024. Consensus narrative suggests revenue could grow about 34.2% per year over the next three years and margins could move from an 8.3% loss to a 13% profit. However, the current trailing loss and negative Basic EPS of US$0.44 on the TTM view show the profitability shift in the data has not arrived yet, even with revenue already up from US$1.5b on the TTM view at Q4 2023 to US$2.7b at Q4 2025.  Volatile EPS path around a US$482.1 million Q2 loss  Quarterly Basic EPS swung from US$1.11 in Q1 2025 to a loss of US$4.48 in Q2, then back to US$0.93 in Q3 and US$0.56 in Q4, alongside a Q2 net loss of US$482.1 million followed by Q3 and Q4 net income of US$214.4 million and US$133.4 million respectively. Bulls argue that earnings could grow roughly 70% per year with margins improving from an 8.3% loss to a 16.4% profit, and this view leans heavily on Circle scaling USDC, Arc Network and the Circle Payments Network. The sharp Q2 2025 loss and still negative trailing Basic EPS highlight how dependent that bullish path is on turning recent swings in net income into a more consistent trend and managing the rising adjusted operating expenses discussed in the narrative alongside growing USDC circulation and USYC balances.  Bulls say Circle is building the core plumbing of onchain finance, so if these EPS swings have you curious about that bigger story, have a look at the 🐂 Circle Internet Group Bull Case for how the optimistic case connects these numbers to 2029 earnings expectations.\n\nPremium pricing versus DCF fair value  Circle trades on a P/S of 7.1x compared with 3.5x for the broader US software group and roughly 7.3x for peers, while a DCF fair value of US$33.59 sits well below the current share price of US$83.14 and the allowed analyst target of US$129.71. Bears point out that the company is currently unprofitable and that this combination of premium P/S, a DCF fair value far under the market price and recent share price volatility plus insider selling makes execution risk on the 16.8% revenue growth and margin improvement they model especially important. Any delay in Arc mainnet, USYC adoption or stablecoin regulation could leave investors paying a high multiple while trailing 12 month net income remains at a US$69.5 million loss and reserve returns sit under pressure from interest rate moves.  If you are weighing those concerns against the current multiple, skeptics' full case ties these valuation gaps to their earnings assumptions in the 🐻 Circle Internet Group Bear Case. Next Steps To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Circle Internet Group on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves. Given the mix of optimism and concern in this story, it is worth seeing the numbers for yourself and deciding how you feel. To help you weigh both sides, take a closer look at the 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs. Explore Alternatives Circle is still loss making on a trailing basis, with volatile EPS around a US$482.1 million quarterly loss and a share price sitting well above its DCF fair value. If that mix of earnings swings, premium multiples and execution risk feels a bit too intense, you can quickly compare it with 80 resilient stocks with low risk scores that focus on more stable business profiles and calmer risk scores.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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