Nvidia's earnings report is just a prelude to what should really matter for investors

MW Nvidia's earnings report is just a prelude to what should really matter for investors

By Britney Nguyen

The chip maker's results are unlikely to be much of a catalyst for the stock as investors look forward to the GTC in March, one analyst says

Nvidia reports fiscal fourth-quarter earnings results on Wednesday.

Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday should carry a "quite positive" tone, according to a BNP Paribas analyst. But that's no guarantee of a strong stock reaction.

Stellar earnings results from Nvidia (NVDA) have been met with shrugs - or worse - in recent quarters, and some analysts aren't sure that this next report will be any different.

One reason is that Nvidia already offered a compelling financial figure recently. The chip maker said late last year that it has visibility into $500 billion of revenue through this year, and BNP Paribas analyst David O'Connor said he expects Nvidia to save any particularly market-moving updates for its annual GTC in March.

Nvidia's stock has been relatively muted so far this year, up just 2%, and lagging the PHLX Semiconductor Sector SOX, which is up 16% in that period.

See more: Why Nvidia's earnings report isn't the market force it once was

Meanwhile, Nvidia has been central to a slew of concerns recently rocking the artificial-intelligence trade. When it comes to Nvidia specifically, investors have questioned the durability of its dominance in the AI chip market, especially given recent market interest in custom-chip projects like Google's tensor processing units that are codeveloped with Broadcom $(AVGO)$.

HSBC analyst Frank Lee said that he expects demand for Nvidia's graphics processing units to remain strong, and for the chips to account for a bulk of AI capital expenditures from hyperscalers. Altogether, Alphabet $(GOOGL)$ $(GOOG)$, Amazon.com (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft $(MSFT)$ are planning to spend $650 billion this year on AI infrastructure.

Nvidia's results are a critical health check on AI spending, Andrew Rocco, a stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research, said in emailed comments. The numbers will also offer a hint into how its neocloud partners such as CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius Group (NBIS) are performing, he added.

Another critical issue is how Nvidia is dealing with sky-high prices for memory components. Investors will be listening for management commentary around its ability to sustain gross margins despite the increasing prices, BNP's O'Connor said.

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Nvidia is expected to report adjusted earnings of $1.54 per share on revenue of $66.1 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter, according to the FactSet consensus. Data center-segment revenue for the January quarter is expected to come in at $60.7 billion. For the full fiscal year, analysts tracked by FactSet are looking for revenue of $213.8 billion.

Looking ahead, analysts are eyeing revenue of $72.9 billion for Nvidia's fiscal first quarter.

-Britney Nguyen

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February 24, 2026 18:16 ET (23:16 GMT)

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