Margin Compression At First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) Challenges Bullish Earnings Narrative

Simply Wall St.09:35

First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) has wrapped up FY 2025 with Q4 total revenue of US$2.4b and basic EPS of US$45.78, alongside net income of US$566m that feeds into a trailing 12 month net profit ...

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Over recent periods, the bank has seen total revenue move between US$2.1b and US$2.4b per quarter and quarterly EPS range from US$34.47 to US$49.18. This gives investors a clear set of numbers to weigh against a five year earnings growth rate of...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":["earning"],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BLSG":"2倍做多BLSH ETF-Leverage Shares","BK4589":"SVB概念","BK4211":"区域性银行","LU0072461881.USD":"BGF US BASIC VALUE \"A2\" ACC","FCNCA":"第一公民银行股份","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","LU0162691827.USD":"BGF US BASIC VALUE \"A4\" INC","LU0006061336.USD":"Blackrock US Small and MidCap Opportunities A2 USD","BLSX":"Tradr 2X Long BLSH Daily ETF","BK4207":"综合性银行"},"translate_title":"First Citizens BancShares(FCNCA)的利润率压缩挑战了看涨的盈利叙事","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"FCNCA":1.98,"BLSX":0.6,"BLSG":0.6},"content_text":"First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) has wrapped up FY 2025 with Q4 total revenue of US$2.4b and basic EPS of US$45.78, alongside net income of US$566m that feeds into a trailing 12 month net profit margin of 23.8%, compared with 29.1% a year earlier. Over recent periods, the bank has seen total revenue move between US$2.1b and US$2.4b per quarter and quarterly EPS range from US$34.47 to US$49.18. This gives investors a clear set of numbers to weigh against a five year earnings growth rate of 18.3% per year and a share price around US$1,995.70 as they assess how compressed margins shape the story from here. See our full analysis for First Citizens BancShares. With the headline results on the table, the next step is to line these figures up against the widely held narratives around First Citizens BancShares to see which views the latest numbers support and which they call into question. See what the community is saying about First Citizens BancShares NasdaqGS:FCNC.A Revenue & Expenses Breakdown as at Feb 2026 AdvertisementNet profit margin slips from 29.1% to 23.8%  On a trailing 12 month basis, net profit margin sits at 23.8%, compared with 29.1% a year earlier, alongside net income of about US$2.1b on US$9.0b of revenue. Consensus narrative talks about share repurchases and cost discipline helping support margins. However, the data shows margin compression, which raises questions about how quickly those moves can offset:\n     Earnings grew 18.3% per year over the last five years, but the most recent year shows weaker earnings alongside the lower margin. Trailing revenue is around US$9.0b while earnings are about US$2.1b, so investors can see that profitability is still solid, just not at last year’s 29.1% level.    Earnings trend cools after 18.3% annual growth  Over the past five years, earnings grew at 18.3% per year, but trailing 12 month net income is about US$2.1b compared with US$2.7b a year earlier, which is described as negative earnings growth versus that earlier trend. Bears focus on the risk that rate cuts and SVB related credit losses could pressure earnings, and the recent step down in profit backs up some of that caution:\n     Net interest margin on a trailing basis is 3.25%, below the 3.54% level reported a year earlier, which ties directly to the concern about lower net interest income if rates move down. Non performing loans rose from US$1.2b to US$1.3b over the same trailing window, which speaks to the credit quality worries bears have flagged around areas like commercial real estate.    On top of that cooling earnings picture, skeptics point out how much of the past 18.3% growth rate could be harder to repeat if margins and credit costs stay closer to today’s levels. 🐻 First Citizens BancShares Bear Case Valuation and forecasts leave mixed signals  At a share price of about US$1,995.70, First Citizens trades on an 11.1x P/E, below peers at 14.5x and the US banks average at 11.7x, and below a DCF fair value of about US$2,753.40, while revenue and earnings are forecast to grow 1.8% and 3.1% per year, slower than the broader US market forecasts of 10.4% and 15.7%. Supporters of the bullish side point to the lower P/E and discount to DCF fair value, while the consensus narrative also highlights investments in technology and share buybacks. Yet the slower growth forecasts create a tension:\n     The implied discount to DCF fair value is about 27.5%, which lines up with the idea that the market is paying less for each dollar of earnings than peers. At the same time, forecast revenue growth of 1.8% and earnings growth of 3.1% sit well below the market, so any re rating would likely depend on how investors weigh that valuation gap against the more modest growth profile.    Next Steps To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for First Citizens BancShares on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves. After all of that, are you leaning cautious or optimistic on FCNCA? Take a moment to move quickly, check the underlying data, and weigh the 2 key rewards against your own view. See What Else Is Out There FCNCA is dealing with a cooler earnings trend, softer net profit and interest margins, and rising non performing loans compared with the prior year. If that mix of margin pressure and credit worries makes you hesitate, it could be worth checking out 80 resilient stocks with low risk scores that focus on more resilient profiles right now.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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