Pembina Pipeline Maintained at Buy at TPH Following Q4 Results; Price Target at C$58.00

MT Newswires Live02-28

Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Friday maintained its buy rating on the shares of Pembina Pipeline (PPL.TO, PBA)with a C$58.00 price target following the oil and gas processing and infrastructure company's fourth-quarter results.

"PPL reported Q4 Adj. EBITDA of C$1,075MM, a miss to our C$1,106MM estimate (~3% below) and closer in line with the Street at C$1,087MM. The shortfall was broadly split across segments. Pipelines came in at C$643MM (TPHe C$663MM), Facilities at C$366MM (TPHe C$378MM), and Marketing at C$116MM (TPHe C$120MM), partially offset by better Corporate at -C$50MM (TPHe -C$55MM). Full-year ACFFO was C$2,854MM ($4.91/sh) versus TPHe C$2,875MM ($4.95/sh). The Q4 miss was driven by lower conventional pipelines EBITDA, which we attribute to narrower margins on the Peace system. Operationally, conventional pipeline volumes came in slightly ahead of estimates (1,059mbopd vs TPHe 1,037mbopd), partially offset by lower Transmission and Oil Sands volumes. Growth capital, inclusive of equity contributions, came in at C$1,194MM for the year, marginally below TPHe C$1,246MM. For business updates, PPL sanctioned C$425MM of new conventional pipeline expansions, (1) the Birch-to-Taylor Expansion (C$310MM, Q4'27) and (2) a smaller scope of the Taylor-to-Gordondale Expansion (C$115MM, Q1'27)," analyst AJ O'Donnell wrote.

(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)

Price: 59.87, Change: -0.32, Percent Change: -0.53

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EBITDA of C$1,075MM, a miss to our C$1,106MM estimate (~3% below) and closer in line with the Street at C$1,087MM. The shortfall was broadly split across segments. Pipelines came in at C$643MM (TPHe C$663MM), Facilities at C$366MM (TPHe C$378MM), and Marketing at C$116MM (TPHe C$120MM), partially offset by better Corporate at -C$50MM (TPHe -C$55MM). Full-year ACFFO was C$2,854MM ($4.91/sh) versus TPHe C$2,875MM ($4.95/sh). The Q4 miss was driven by lower conventional pipelines EBITDA, which we attribute to narrower margins on the Peace system. Operationally, conventional pipeline volumes came in slightly ahead of estimates (1,059mbopd vs TPHe 1,037mbopd), partially offset by lower Transmission and Oil Sands volumes. Growth capital, inclusive of equity contributions, came in at C$1,194MM for the year, marginally below TPHe C$1,246MM. 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EBITDA of C$1,075MM, a miss to our C$1,106MM estimate (~3% below) and closer in line with the Street at C$1,087MM. The shortfall was broadly split across segments. Pipelines came in at C$643MM (TPHe C$663MM), Facilities at C$366MM (TPHe C$378MM), and Marketing at C$116MM (TPHe C$120MM), partially offset by better Corporate at -C$50MM (TPHe -C$55MM). Full-year ACFFO was C$2,854MM ($4.91/sh) versus TPHe C$2,875MM ($4.95/sh). The Q4 miss was driven by lower conventional pipelines EBITDA, which we attribute to narrower margins on the Peace system. Operationally, conventional pipeline volumes came in slightly ahead of estimates (1,059mbopd vs TPHe 1,037mbopd), partially offset by lower Transmission and Oil Sands volumes. Growth capital, inclusive of equity contributions, came in at C$1,194MM for the year, marginally below TPHe C$1,246MM. 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