Assessing Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness

Simply Wall St.02-25 23:38

AdvertisementChipotle Mexican Grill stock after recent performance shifts Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has been drawing attention after a mixed run in its share price, with a 10.72% decline over the ...

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Its 3 year total shareholder return of 22.36%...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU2065171311.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","SGXZ81514606.USD":"大华环球创新基金A Acc USD","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU2065171402.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (SGD) INC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","BK7095":"多种金属与采矿","LU2065169927.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ51526630.SGD":"大华环球创新基金A Acc SGD","LU1721429402.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SMART FOOD \"C\" (USD) ACC","CMG.AU":"Critical Minerals Group Limited","LU1721429741.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SMART FOOD \"CRH\" (USD) INC","LU0354030511.USD":"ALLSPRING  U.S. LARGE CAP GROWTH \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4209":"餐馆","CMGG":"2倍做多CMG ETF-Leverage Shares","BK4588":"碎股","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","CMG":"墨式烧烤","LU0354030438.USD":"富国美国大盘成长基金Cl A Acc","SGXZ99366536.SGD":"United Global Innovation A Acc SGD-H","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU2065170008.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (USD) INC"},"translate_title":"在近期股价疲软后评估Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG)的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CMG":1.5,"CMG.AU":1.5,"CMGG":0.6},"content_text":"AdvertisementChipotle Mexican Grill stock after recent performance shifts Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has been drawing attention after a mixed run in its share price, with a 10.72% decline over the past month contrasting with a 7.23% gain over the past 3 months. See our latest analysis for Chipotle Mexican Grill. At a share price of US$36.49, Chipotle’s short term share price return has softened, with a 7 day decline of 3.67% and a 30 day decline of 10.72%. Its 3 year total shareholder return of 22.36% and 5 year total shareholder return of 23.65% show a very different longer term picture, suggesting recent moves may reflect changing sentiment around its growth profile and risk rather than a simple break from its broader track record. If recent swings in restaurant stocks have you thinking about where else growth might come from, it could be a good moment to look at 22 top founder-led companies as a fresh set of ideas. So with Chipotle trading at US$36.49, a value score of 2 and only a marginal intrinsic discount, is recent weakness giving you a genuine entry point, or are markets already baking in the company’s future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 18.9% Undervalued With Chipotle last closing at $36.49 and the most followed narrative pointing to a fair value of $45.00, the gap between price and story is clear, and the context behind that fair value rests heavily on how the business might scale and sustain its profitability.  Imagine-nos em 2030: a Chipotle já ultrapassou as 7.000 unidades na América do Norte, o seu objetivo histórico, e consolidou-se como uma marca global verdadeiramente relevante. O que torna esta visão plausível é o \"moat\" competitivo da empresa no segmento fast-casual, um fosso defensivo construído sobre pilares sólidos.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what growth path could justify that valuation gap? The narrative leans on steady revenue expansion, firm margins and a future earnings multiple that assumes Chipotle keeps acting like a category leader. Want to see which specific assumptions drive that $45.00 fair value and how they tie together over time? Result: Fair Value of $45.00 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, the story can change quickly if international expansion stumbles or if cost pressures squeeze Chipotle’s US$1,535.761m net income and 13.04% profit margin assumptions. Find out about the key risks to this Chipotle Mexican Grill narrative. Another angle on Chipotle’s valuation If you set the $45.00 fair value narrative to one side and just look at the current P/E of 30.9x, the picture is more complicated. That is richer than the US Hospitality industry at 22.3x, below peers at 38.5x, and above a fair ratio of 26.5x. Is the market quietly pricing in extra risk along with Chipotle’s strengths? See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. NYSE:CMG P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026Next Steps If this mix of optimism and caution has you undecided, it is worth checking the numbers yourself soon and weighing what stands out most for you. To see what the market is currently optimistic about, take a look at the 3 key rewards. Looking for more investment ideas? If you are serious about sharpening your portfolio beyond a single stock, this is the moment to broaden your watchlist and see what else stands out.  Spot potential value candidates early by checking our 51 high quality undervalued stocks that are currently priced below what their fundamentals may suggest. Strengthen your portfolio’s foundations with companies in the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (40 results) that pair financial resilience with underlying business quality. Uncover opportunities the crowd might be overlooking through our screener containing 23 high quality undiscovered gems that combine quality metrics with lower market attention.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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