PepsiCo (PEP) Valuation Check As Earnings Beat And Dividend Hike Renew Growth Hopes

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AdvertisementWhy PepsiCo (PEP) is back on investors’ radar PepsiCo (PEP) just paired better than expected Q4 2025 earnings with a 4% dividend hike, its 54th straight annual increase, while outlining ...

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See our latest analysis for PepsiCo. Those earnings and dividend headlines have arrived alongside a sharp rebound in momentum, with PepsiCo’s 30 day share price return of 17.26% and 90 day share price return of 14.57% lifting the stock to US$169.54. Its 5 year total shareholder return of 50.92% reflects a steadier long term compounding profile. Recent product launches in prebiotic cola, protein forward snacks and licensed beverage tie ins, along with portfolio reshaping in snacks and new health focused foods, are helping reset expectations around growth and risk. If PepsiCo’s recent moves have you rethinking where growth could come from next, it might be worth scanning 22 top founder-led companies as another way to spot long term compounders. With PepsiCo trading around US$169.54, only a small 0.5% discount to the average analyst target and a modelled intrinsic discount near 37%, the real question is whether the recent rally leaves upside on the table or if the market is already pricing in the next leg of growth. Most Popular Narrative: 5.7% Overvalued PepsiCo’s last close at $169.54 sits modestly above the narrative fair value of $160.43, which frames the current share price as slightly ahead of that view.  Future Efforts: Digitalization: • Automation of the supply chain. • Investment in data, enabling large-scale digitalization across the entire value chain (from procurement to factory management, including transportation and market placement). • Improved understanding of ROI to optimize advertising and marketing expenses. Geographical Expansion: • Construction of two renewable energy-powered factories in Vietnam, with a total investment of $400 million: • $300 million for a beverage factory in Long An, operational in Q1 2026. • $90 million for a food processing factory in Ha Nam, operational in Q3 2025. • Acquisition of Varun Beverages, a bottler in Africa, to expand operations in the region. • Increased investments in India to capture additional market share. Product Diversification: • Acquisition of Siete Foods, specializing in Mexican cuisine, aiming to appeal to the growing Hispanic population in the United States. Environmental Responsibility  Read the complete narrative. This narrative leans on steady revenue growth, firm margins and a premium earnings multiple to justify that fair value, all according to Serpentaire. Curious how digitalization, new regions and product expansion are woven into those assumptions, and which inputs really move the valuation needle. Result: Fair Value of $160.43 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, there is still a risk that PepsiCo’s premium P/E and user narrative assumptions on stable margins could collide with weaker snack demand or slower progress on digital and emerging market projects. Find out about the key risks to this PepsiCo narrative. Another View: DCF Points the Other Way Serpentaire’s narrative flags PepsiCo as about 5.7% overvalued at $169.54 versus a $160.43 fair value, but our DCF model tells a different story. It puts fair value at $269.41, which is a 37.1% gap. For you, that raises a simple question: is the market being too cautious? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. PEP Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out PepsiCo for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 51 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity. Next Steps With mixed signals across narratives and models, do you think the market has this one right, or is it overreacting? Take a moment to review the full picture and come to your own view with 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs Looking for more investment ideas? If PepsiCo has you thinking differently about your portfolio, do not stop here. Use the screener to quickly surface other companies that might suit your approach.  Spot potential value opportunities early by scanning 51 high quality undervalued stocks that pair solid fundamentals with prices that may not fully reflect their strengths. Strengthen your income stream by reviewing 16 dividend fortresses built around companies with higher yields that may appeal if you want more regular cash returns. Prioritise resilience by checking 78 resilient stocks with low risk scores so you do not miss companies that score well on stability and downside protection.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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