By Doug Busch
The State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF offers a way to capture industrial and precious metals trends and benefit from the overall health of the U.S. metals and mining sector. Investors should remember the ETF's powerful run off its lows last April. The XME went on a 27-of-28-week winning streak, surging 141% over that period.
Today, the ETF sits 12% below its most recent 52-week high after a bruising 10% decline in the final week of January. That move occurred on the heaviest weekly volume in almost three years.
Looking at the daily chart, XME is on the verge of a bullish MACD crossover from below the zero line, a signal that often carries more weight as a potential trend reversal rather than just a short-term bounce. A similar crossover occurred last April, preceding the 141% gain cited above. Another in November sparked a 58% advance.
The ETF is now finding support at its rising 50-day simple moving average for the first time since breaking above the double-bottom pivot at $109.02, often an ideal entry point. A position here makes sense, with the potential to add above the newly formed double-bottom trigger at $126.55, a base that began with a doji on Jan. 23. That doji was followed by a bearish engulfing candle, but the setup remains constructive. From current levels, XME could move toward $151 by mid-2026, offering upside of 27% from current prices, while remaining bullish above $114.
Silver was a standout of 2025, and Hecla Mining stock skyrocketed nearly 400% over the past year. The stock has since pulled back, trading roughly 28% below its recent 52-week high. Like much of the precious metals sector, Hecla saw a sharp decline of nearly 30% in the final week of January.
Looking at the daily chart, the stock is showing early signs of turning higher. It has successfully retested the bull-flag breakout from early January near the round $20 level and is now breaking above a bear flag -- bullish signal, as failed bearish setups often precede upside moves. The recent pullback began with a doji candle on Jan. 23. This appears to be an ideal entry point, with the right side of a cup base potentially forming. From here, the stock could reach $33 by mid-2026, roughly a 38% gain, while remaining bullish above $21.
Hecla Mining was trading around $24 Friday.
Alcoa is having a banner year, up 89% over the past 12 months and a remarkable 211% from the April lows. The stock has shown impressive consistency, not posting consecutive weekly losses since July. As one of XME's 10 largest holdings, Alcoa has demonstrated solid relative strength, now trading just 7% below its recent 52-week high while the XME sits 13% off its annual peak.
Looking at the five-year weekly chart, the stock shows potential for a bullish MACD crossover, with the 50-week simple moving average poised to cross above the 200-week, a classic long-term bullish signal. The last time this occurred in 2021, Alcoa doubled before running into resistance near the round $100 level in early 2022, marked by a doji candle. Since breaking above a weekly double-bottom base just under $50 last December, the stock has acted well and now formed a bull flag. This appears to be an attractive entry point, with a potential move toward $100 by year-end, roughly 59% upside, while remaining bullish above $57.
Alcoa was trading around $62 Friday.
Doug Busch is the senior technical analyst at Barron's Investor Circle . His technical view is added to stock picks, including those published exclusively for Investor Circle readers. A glossary of technical terms is updated regularly with new entries.
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 27, 2026 11:50 ET (16:50 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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