Amplitude Energy H1 2026 Loss Deepens Bearish Narrative On Path To Profitability

Simply Wall St.02-26 17:36

Amplitude Energy (ASX:AEL) has reported its H1 2026 scorecard with trailing twelve month revenue of A$275.8 million and a loss translating into basic EPS of A$0.09, keeping the company in loss-making ...

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Over the same stretch, half year basic EPS has moved from a loss of A$0.10 in H2 2024 to a loss of A$0.19 in H2 2025, setting up this latest result as a check-in on whether margins are...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4023":"应用软件","AEL.AU":"AMPLITUDE ENERGY LIMITED","AMPL":"AmplitudeE, Inc.","BK7142":"石油与天然气的勘探与生产"},"translate_title":"Amplitude Energy 2026年上半年亏损加深了对盈利之路的悲观看法","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AEL.AU":1,"AMPL":1.5},"content_text":"Amplitude Energy (ASX:AEL) has reported its H1 2026 scorecard with trailing twelve month revenue of A$275.8 million and a loss translating into basic EPS of A$0.09, keeping the company in loss-making territory even as the top line has scaled up from A$113.2 million in H2 2024 to A$134.3 million in H2 2025. Over the same stretch, half year basic EPS has moved from a loss of A$0.10 in H2 2024 to a loss of A$0.19 in H2 2025, setting up this latest result as a check-in on whether margins are starting to stabilise or if pressure is still building. See our full analysis for Amplitude Energy. With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings print lines up with the prevailing stories about Amplitude Energy’s growth, risk profile and path to profitability. See what the community is saying about Amplitude Energy ASX:AEL Revenue & Expenses Breakdown as at Feb 2026 AdvertisementH1 2026 shows mixed profit trend  Looking across the recent halves, Amplitude moved from a profit of A$7.57 million in H1 2025 to a loss of A$48.9 million in H2 2025, and on the latest trailing twelve month view it is still loss making with net income of A$22.7 million in the red. Supporters of the bullish view point to analysts expecting earnings growth of 53.81% per year and a move to profitability within three years. However, this sits alongside a five year pattern of losses worsening by about 2.5% per year, which means the upbeat forecasts are being made against a backdrop of deepening historical losses.  Bulls argue that this gap between past losses and forecast growth reflects operating improvements at assets like Orbost and Athena, but the numbers you have today still show a business that has not yet converted those improvements into consistent profits. 🐂 Amplitude Energy Bull Case Revenue growth versus unprofitable status  On a trailing twelve month basis, revenue sits at A$275.8 million compared with A$246.9 million for the first half of 2025 alone, while basic EPS over that same trailing period is a loss of A$0.09 per share and net income is A$22.7 million in the red. Bears highlight that even with revenue presented as growing at about 15.4% per year, the company remains unprofitable today and has seen losses deepen over the past five years. Their concern is that reliance on higher domestic gas prices and execution of projects like the East Coast Supply Project may not be enough to offset the existing loss making trend if pricing or project timing does not go their way.   That cautious stance leans heavily on the fact that H2 2025 alone carried a loss of A$48.9 million, which is a much larger setback than the earlier H1 2025 profit of A$7.57 million and reinforces the idea that earnings can swing sharply. At the same time, consensus forecasts still build in margin improvement from current loss making levels. If production or prices soften relative to those expectations, the bearish concerns about earnings durability find support in the recent pattern of losses.  🐻 Amplitude Energy Bear Case Valuation gap and revenue multiples  The shares trade at A$2.55 with a P/S of 2.8x, compared with a peer average of 1.7x and an Australian Oil & Gas industry average of 9.4x, while an internal DCF fair value reference of A$99.91 per share implies the market price is very far below that modelled level. Consensus narrative notes that analysts are using revenue growth assumptions of 13.0% per year and margin expansion from a current loss making position to around 21.6% in three years to justify a price target of A$3.24. The current A$2.55 share price sits below that target while still valuing the company on a higher P/S multiple than its peer group, which creates a tension between the premium to peers on sales and the large gap to the DCF fair value reference.  Next Steps To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Amplitude Energy on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves. After all of that, do you feel the story is more bullish or cautious? Act quickly, look through the numbers yourself, and weigh up the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign before you decide where you stand. See What Else Is Out There Amplitude Energy is still carrying losses, has seen earnings swing sharply between halves, and trades on a higher P/S multiple than its peer group. If that volatility and premium pricing leaves you cautious, it is worth checking companies in our 7 resilient stocks with low risk scores that focus more on resilience and steadier fundamentals.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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