PLS Group (ASX:PLS) Is Up 9.7% After Cash-Funded Lithium Expansion Push - Has The Bull Case Changed?

Simply Wall St.02-26 08:34

In February 2026, PLS Group Limited reported that half-year sales to December 31, 2025 rose to A$624.21 million and net income improved to A$32.82 million, alongside higher lithium production of 432.8...

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At the same time, PLS Group moved to lift future output and strengthen market access by restarting its Ngungaju plant, signing a major two-year spodumene offtake deal with Canmax Technologies that includes a US$100 million interest-free prepayment, and agreeing to buy Calix’s stake in a lithium mid-stream processing joint venture for A$11.4 million. Next, we’ll examine how the Ngungaju restart plan interacts with PLS Group’s existing expansion-led investment narrative and risk profile. We've uncovered the 9 dividend fortresses yielding 5%+ that don't just survive market storms, but thrive in them.AdvertisementPLS Group Investment Narrative RecapTo own PLS Group, you need to be comfortable with a volume-led lithium producer whose fortunes are closely tied to lithium prices and disciplined expansion. The latest half-year profit and higher production support the case that the main short term catalyst is execution on growth projects, while the biggest risk remains that heavy investment into extra capacity could bite if pricing stays weak. This news improves visibility on near term cash flow but does not remove that core risk. The Ngungaju restart decision is the key update here. Bringing the plant back online, backed by the two year Canmax offtake agreement and US$100 million interest free prepayment, directly links higher future output to secured demand and funding. That potentially supports the expansion-led narrative, but also amplifies exposure to lithium price volatility and project delivery risk, which are already central to how investors think about PLS Group’s next phase. Yet even with stronger earnings and Ngungaju coming back, investors still need to weigh the risk that heavy expansion and higher fixed costs collide with... Read the full narrative on PLS Group (it's free!)PLS Group's narrative projects A$1.4 billion revenue and A$247.0 million earnings by 2028.Uncover how PLS Group's forecasts yield a A$3.00 fair value, a 38% downside to its current price.Exploring Other PerspectivesASX:PLS 1-Year Stock Price Chart Some of the most optimistic analysts were already penciling in revenue of about A$2.1 billion and earnings of roughly A$518.0 million by 2028, so if you are drawn to that upside story you also need to consider how this new Ngungaju and offtake news interacts with the risk of prolonged low lithium prices and whether those bullish assumptions still feel realistic.Explore 12 other fair value estimates on PLS Group - why the stock might be worth as much as 15% more than the current price!Reach Your Own ConclusionDon't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.A great starting point for your PLS Group research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward that could impact your investment decision.Our free PLS Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate PLS Group's overall financial health at a glance.Seeking Other Investments?Our daily scans reveal stocks with breakout potential. Don't miss this chance:The future of work is here. Discover the 32 top robotics and automation stocks leading the charge in AI-driven automation and industrial transformation.The latest GPUs need a type of rare earth metal called Neodymium and there are only 30 companies in the world exploring or producing it. Find the list for free.Find 6 companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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