Tesla Stock Falls. Why It's No Longer Getting a Boost from Oil-Price Spikes

Dow Jones03-02 20:51

Tesla stock fell early Monday, along with most stocks, despite rising oil prices that, at one point, had given the electric vehicle maker a boost.

Shares of Elon Musk's car company were down 2.5% at $392.52 in premarket trading, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were both down about 1.1%.

The move came as oil prices shot higher after the U.S. and Israel began military operations against Iran over the weekend. Benchmark U.S. crude prices were up 7.5% to $72.04 per barrel in early trading.

In the past, Tesla stock would get a boost from spikes in oil prices, with higher gasoline prices driving buyers to check out all-electric options. That was at a time when electric-vehicle penetration of new-car sales was lower, though. Americans bought about 1.3 million cars in 2025, accounting for roughly 8% of all new car sales.

All things being equal, electricity from a home is cheaper than gas from a pump. A Tesla Model Y might take about $10 of electricity to drive 250 miles. That might be $25 of gasoline for a similar car at current prices.

Gasoline prices, however, are down about 40% since peaks reached in 2022, while retail electricity prices are up about 30% over the same span. Back then, the EV versus gasoline gap might have been closer to $30 to drive 250 miles, rather than today's $15 gap.

For now, investors aren't thinking about what higher gasoline prices mean for EV demand. They are thinking about what rising geopolitical tensions mean for U.S. stocks and the economy.

Shares of energy companies and defense contractors are higher. Exxon Mobil stock was up 4% in premarket trading. Shares of Lockheed Martin were up almost 7%.

Tesla stock might also be affected by weak Chinese EV sales. In February, XPeng delivered 15,256 cars, down 50% from last year. Li Auto delivered 26,421, down 5%. Only NIO posted a gain of the three, delivering 20,797 cars, up 57% from a year ago.

Combined, NIO, Li, and XPeng delivered 62,474 cars, down 10.6% from a year ago. It was the worst monthly combined performance since January 2023, when sales fell 17.2% from the year earlier.

China, the world's largest market for electric vehicles, is important for Tesla. It accounted for 22% of the company's sales in 2025.

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Comments

  • Warzypants
    03-03 09:11
    Warzypants
    Hmm. Have to be careful when looking at Tesla's China sales. Remember that Shanghai is Tesla's export hub, serving Japan, Korea, Australia, NZ and now Canada and possibly some others. It can be misleading to look at China registrations for a particular month since for some months most of Shanghai's output is shipped off to other countries.
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