It is no secret that technology has lagged behind the overall market. Two months into 2026, the group is down 3% for the year, as judged by the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF, and ranks ninth best among the 11 major sectors.
Drilling down even deeper into semis, Nvidia, a name that once seemed automatic to lead, has lost its way. Over the past year, while the VanEck Semiconductor ETF rose 74%, Nvidia advanced by 47%. While respectable, in past years one would have expected it to handily beat its benchmark.
Market participants relied on the stock's most recent earnings reaction to save the market on Feb. 26, but that never occurred. In fact it has recorded three consecutive negative earnings reactions, which is the opposite of what most expect from this former general. With the stock now 14% off its most recent 52 week highs, has it been given ample rest for its next potential move higher?
Let's dive into the daily and monthly charts to see if NVDA has what it takes to reclaim leadership.
Looking at the daily chart of Nvidia, the stock has underperformed its semiconductor peers since last August, as seen on the ratio chart. However, the $175 area has consistently drawn in buyers since November. A bullish hammer on Nov. 25 marked the first defense, followed by a doji on Dec. 18 that suggested selling pressure was beginning to fade after a 20% pullback from the late October highs. Strong follow through arrived the next session, with a 4% rally on robust volume.
More recently, price has once again found support in that same zone as price has caught up to the 200-day simple moving average. A bullish morning star was completed on Feb. 6, sparking an 8% gain, the stock's best daily return since April 9, 2025, when it surged 19%. On Monday, despite an expected very weak tape, Nvidia again held that secular moving average and printed a bullish engulfing candle.
In my view, this sets up an attractive risk/reward opportunity. I believe the stock can advance toward $260 by year-end, representing roughly 43% upside from current levels. Remain bullish above $171.
Nvidia closed at $182.37 Monday.
Last Friday closed out the month, giving us longer term candles to analyze. On the ratio chart, the stock has historically led its group.
Interestingly, volume has steadily faded over the past two years, which could suggest that selling pressure is finally exhausting itself. The sideways price action is also constructive, especially considering it followed a firm uptrend, and trends often resolve in the direction from which they came, in this case higher. Bears will point to two recent doji candles and a bearish engulfing pattern, but if the stock can hold its recent lows, the risk/reward appears skewed attractively to the upside.
Doug Busch is the senior technical analyst at Barron's Investor Circle . His technical view is added to stock picks, including those published exclusively for Investor Circle readers. A glossary of technical terms is updated regularly with new entries.
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