RPT-BREAKINGVIEWS-White House’s Iran war tab will mount quickly

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

By Gabriel Rubin

WASHINGTON, March 2 (Reuters Breakingviews) - President Trump ran on ending wars and now touts efforts to address U.S. citizens’ concerns on affordability. On Saturday, he initiated conflict with Iran that has already shuttered shipping lanes and spiked oil and natural-gas prices. Having done little to prepare the American public or international allies for war, the White House may reap a toxic backlash.

Unwanted conflicts rarely gain popularity as they progress. Just 27% of Americans approve of the choice to launch strikes, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. That number seems likelier to go down than up, as U.S. generals warn of more casualties to come and the Strait of Hormuz, bottleneck for one-fifth of the world’s oil, effectively closes.

As the conflict widens to engulf Iran’s regional neighbors, Qatar has moved to halt liquefied natural gas production, while a Saudi oil refinery has temporarily closed. An initial oil price bump of 10% to 15% could, over the course of several weeks, add about $0.20 to $0.40 per gallon of gasoline, judging by a commonly used rule of thumb. Such assumptions depend on a conflict remaining brief and production staying online. A protracted war, disruptive enough to force the United States to tap its 4.4-billion-barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve and strand supplies in the Persian Gulf, could be much worse. Look, for instance, at the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when U.S. gasoline prices peaked at $5.02 per gallon. They currently stand at around $3, according to the American Automobile Association.

Electricity prices, already rising in the U.S. due in part to voracious data centers, risk their own shock. As the world’s largest LNG producer, the United States has more breathing room than importers like Europe and Japan. Still, this is an international market, and higher prices abroad will siphon off supply.

All of this gives opposition Democrats an opening to tie Trump to price increases: indeed, Hakeem Jeffries, the party’s leader in the House of Representatives, is already pushing that message. Sharpening the economic case against war shouldn’t be difficult. The White House wants a 50% increase in the military budget, to $1.5 trillion, while lowering taxes for the wealthy. A recent Supreme Court ruling puts $175 billion of collected tariff revenue at risk, further worsening an already dire fiscal picture.

Just 34% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, per Reuters/Ipsos. Any marginal policy shifts will be minor news amid a new regional war that has already cost U.S. lives and treasure. Meanwhile, midterm elections approach. The longer this conflict goes, the higher the political risk the administration runs.

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CONTEXT NEWS

Qatar halted its production of liquefied natural gas on March 2 as Israeli and U.S. strikes against Iran and Tehran's retaliation prompted precautionary shutdowns of facilities across the Middle East.

Oil prices surged as much as 13% intraday to above $82 a barrel, the highest since January 2025, as the conflict ground shipping to a near halt in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil supply flows.

(Editing by Jonathan Guilford; Production by Maya Nandhini)

((For previous columns by the author, Reuters customers can click on RUBIN/gabriel.rubin@thomsonreuters.com))