Will Iran-US Agree To A Nuclear Deal? Here's What The Prediction Market Thinks

Benzinga_recent_news03-01

The U.S. and Israel conducted strikes on Iran on Saturday, which killed the country's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with several other senior leaders. The mission, dubbed "Operation ...

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Here's What The Prediction Market Thinks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-01 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/03/50953906/will-iran-us-agree-to-a-nuclear-deal-heres-what-the-prediction-market-thinks><strong>Benzinga_recent_news</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The U.S. and Israel conducted strikes on Iran on Saturday, which killed the country's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with several other senior leaders.\nThe mission, dubbed \"Operation ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/03/50953906/will-iran-us-agree-to-a-nuclear-deal-heres-what-the-prediction-market-thinks\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"ADC","symbol_name":"艾格里房产","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/03/50953906/will-iran-us-agree-to-a-nuclear-deal-heres-what-the-prediction-market-thinks","article_id":"2616826018","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2026/03/01/Iran-Map--Coronavirus-In-Iran--Coranavir.jpeg?optimize=medium&dpr=2&auto=webp&width=240"],"rights":{"source":"benzinga_recent_news","url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/03/50953906/will-iran-us-agree-to-a-nuclear-deal-heres-what-the-prediction-market-thinks","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2616826018","pubTimestamp":1772354640,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"benzinga_recent_news","name":"Benzinga"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"U.S. and Israel strike Iran, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and other leaders. Prediction markets optimistic about nuclear deal.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"ADC":"艾格里房产","BK4231":"零售房地产信托","BK4080":"零售业房地产投资信托"},"translate_title":"伊朗和美国会同意核协议吗？这是预测市场的想法","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ADC":1.5},"content_text":"The U.S. and Israel conducted strikes on Iran on Saturday, which killed the country's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with several other senior leaders.\nThe mission, dubbed \"Operation Fury,\" is aimed at ending Iran's nuclear program and comes amid failed talks between Iran and several other countries to halt nuclear weapons development.\nWith Iran's Supreme Leader dead, prediction markets are now optimistic about a nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran.\nData from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $470,000 has been bet on the contract “US-Iran nuclear deal?\"\nThe option with the highest probability as per the contract is \"Before 2027,\" which has a 58% probability as per bettors, up by 17%.\n\"Before August\" is another popular option, with bettors placing a 45% probability on the option, up by 10%.\nA highly optimistic option that has received a 24% probability is \"Before April.\"\nPresident Donald Trump on Sunday took to Truth Social to warn Iran against taking any action against the U.S., saying \"they better not do that\" and saying the U.S. will hit Iran with \"a force that has never been seen before\" if they do.\nSpeculation is also rife about who will be the next Supreme Leader after the death of Khamenei. Prediction market is betting on Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader, to succeed.\nDisclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.\nPhoto courtesy: Shutterstock\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2616826018","isCrawlerRequest":true}