格隆汇发布哔哩哔哩更新报告

格隆汇13:28

Slightly beating market expectations. Revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 reached RMB8.32 billion (consensus: RMB8.19 billion), modestly ahead of market expectations and representing 13% year-over-year growth. Advertising remained the key driver, generating RMB3.04 billion and emerging as the company’s primary engine of incremental revenue. Quarterly non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB880 million (consensus: RMB820 million), up 94% year-over-year and slightly above expectations. Non-GAAP net margin expanded to 10.5%, supporting the view that Bilibili’s operating leverage is increasingly materializing as scale improves. On the user side, daily active users (DAU) reached 112 million, with average daily usage of 108 minutes. Monthly paying users stood at 34 million, and the average user age of 26 highlights the platform’s strong community engagement and the rising consumption potential of its core demographic.

Advertising: engagement growth and monetization efficiency continue to reinforce the flywheel. Advertising momentum reflects both improving user engagement and steady gains in monetization efficiency. Bilibili’s ecosystem—anchored by high-quality content and a highly interactive community—continues to reinforce a virtuous cycle of creator supply and user demand. The platform is successfully capturing rising advertising budgets from sectors including gaming, 3C and home appliances, and internet services (notably AI-related advertisers). Management indicated that the company’s recommendation and ad-delivery algorithms have improved significantly over the past two to three years and are now approaching the industry’s mid- to high-tier level, with further room for optimization. Meanwhile, Bilibili’s young user base is entering a stage of rapidly increasing purchasing power and broader consumption categories, strengthening the platform’s long-term commercial value to advertisers.

Games segment shows early signs of recovery with a focus on long-term operation. In 4Q25, deferred revenue reached RMB4.7 billion, up 23% year-over-year and representing a solid performance despite the traditional seasonal slowdown. Management continues to emphasize that Bilibili’s ability to stay close to young gaming communities and its strong content development capabilities remain core advantages. The company currently plans to launch the new title N-Card in mid-2026 (approximately one quarter later than previously planned) and expects to release Lumi Master globally within 2026. Meanwhile, evergreen titles such as Fate/Grand Order (FGO) and Azur Lane continue to deliver stable and predictable revenue streams. The newly released title Escape from Duckov, launched in October 2025, sold more than 3 million copies within its first three weeks and went on to become the best-selling domestic single-player game of the year, now ranking among the top three best-selling titles of all time in the category.

AI investment to focus on productivity and monetization efficiency. Artificial intelligence is increasingly enhancing the productivity of high-quality content creators—still a scarce resource within the content ecosystem—while also improving advertising matching and delivery efficiency. In 2026, Bilibili plans to increase AI investment with a focus on two areas: (1) strengthening content understanding to improve recommendation and advertising matching accuracy; and (2) developing creator tools capable of translating video speech and synchronizing lip movements automatically. During the earnings call, management estimated that AI-related initiatives could contribute approximately RMB0.5–1.0 billion to revenue in FY2026. This remains below broader market expectations of roughly RMB3.5 billion, suggesting that monetization from AI may ramp gradually.

Long-term profitability trajectory remains intact. Bilibili’s shares are currently trading at approximately US$25.55 per ADS, implying an enterprise value of about US$9.2 billion. Consensus forecasts project EBITDA of US$675 million in CY2026 and US$829 million in CY2027, corresponding to EV/EBITDA multiples of roughly 14x and 11x, respectively. This compares with peer averages of approximately 12x and 10x over the same period. Over the next three years, the company’s net income is expected to grow at a CAGR of around 25–30%. More recently, heightened geopolitical tensions and broader systemic risks have triggered a pullback across Chinese equities. Should market sentiment stabilize, particularly around 2Q26 when Bilibili’s upcoming game pipeline begins to launch, investor interest in the stock could improve.

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