China PBOC Expected to Be Cautious on Rate Cuts -- Market Talk

Dow Jones03-05

0742 GMT - The People's Bank of China is expected to take a cautious approach on interest-rate cuts, ANZ Research economists say in a note. If 1Q GDP growth comes in at 4.5%, the likelihood of a near-term policy rate cut would be minimal, as headline growth is projected to pick up in later quarters. ANZ maintains its forecast for two 25bp reserve requirement ratio cuts in 2026, with the first likely before the Politburo meeting in April. "Targeted easing measures are expected to be used by authorities to foster structural growth," ANZ adds. China's lower GDP growth target may also give its central bank room to review its policy framework, which could lead to reforms of the interest-rate corridor, bank reserve requirements and exchange-rate management. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 05, 2026 02:42 ET (07:42 GMT)

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ANZ maintains its forecast for two 25bp reserve requirement ratio cuts in 2026, with the first likely before the Politburo meeting in April. \"Targeted easing measures are expected to be used by authorities to foster structural growth,\" ANZ adds. China's lower GDP growth target may also give its central bank room to review its policy framework, which could lead to reforms of the interest-rate corridor, bank reserve requirements and exchange-rate management. 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If 1Q GDP growth comes in at 4.5%, the likelihood of a near-term policy rate cut would be minimal, as headline growth is projected to pick up in later quarters. ANZ maintains its forecast for two 25bp reserve requirement ratio cuts in 2026, with the first likely before the Politburo meeting in April. \"Targeted easing measures are expected to be used by authorities to foster structural growth,\" ANZ adds. China's lower GDP growth target may also give its central bank room to review its policy framework, which could lead to reforms of the interest-rate corridor, bank reserve requirements and exchange-rate management. 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