MW Costco's stock chart sees a bullish 'golden cross' just before earnings are released
By Tomi Kilgore
Bullish pattern appears after the stock had its best two-month start to a year since the early 1990s
A bullish "golden cross" pattern has appeared in Costco's stock chart for the first time in nearly three years, on the same day the latest quarterly report is slated to be released.
Costco Wholesale's stock is poised to produce a bullish chart pattern that hasn't been seen in nearly three years, just before the membership-based warehouse retailer releases its latest earnings report.
The pattern, known as a "golden cross," provides technical confirmation of the historic rally the stock $(COST)$ has seen to start this year, as investors seemed to focus on how Costco's sales growth has consistently beat that of its rivals at a time when consumers have been clamoring for discounted goods.
Investors will get a look late Thursday at Costco's sales performance in its fiscal second quarter, which runs through mid-February. The average estimate of analysts surveyed by FactSet is for growth in comparable sales, or sales at stores open at least a year, of 6.3% from a year ago, which is right around the average growth over the past eight quarters of 6.2%.
In comparison, rival BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings $(BJ)$ Thursday morning reported comparable sales growth for its latest quarter, which ended Jan. 31, of 1.6%, below the FactSet consensus for a 1.9% rise. That metric had grown by an average of 2.4% over the previous eight quarters.
Costco's stock declined 5.9% in 2025 amid worries about slowing membership growth. But to start 2026, the stock shot up 17.2% over the January-February period, which was the biggest gain for that two-month period since it climbed 23.3% over the first two months of 1991.
Although the stock was down 1.4% in recent morning trading Thursday and has lost 1.8% to start March, the 50-day moving average, which is a widely followed short-term trend tracker, rose to $953.99 from $951.26 on Wednesday.
At the same time, the 200-day moving average, which many chart watchers see as a dividing line between longer-term uptrends and downtrends, fell to $951.29 from $951.46.
The 50-DMA's rise above the 200-DMA marks the first "golden cross" since May 31, 2023. Many technicians sees this as marking the spot where a shorter-term rally graduates to a long-term uptrend.
Keep in mind that moving-average crossovers aren't meant to be market-timing tools, as they are often well telegraphed. But recent history shows that at least for Costco's stock, golden crosses have mostly been good for investors.
Over the past 10 years, there have been seven golden crosses in Costco's stock chart. The time between those golden crosses and a subsequent "death cross" - when the 50-DMA crosses below the 200-DMA - averaged 263 trading sessions. That compares with an average 77 trading sessions between a death cross and a subsequent golden cross.
After the last golden cross on May 31, 2023, the 50-DMA stayed above the 200-DMA for 556 trading sessions, or until the last death cross appeared on Aug. 19, 2025. During that time, the stock soared 92.8%.
For the past five golden cross periods - when the 50-DMA was above the 200-DMA - the stock rose four times, by an average of 32.1%. In the one instance that the stock didn't rise, it fell 10.2%.
What Wall Street expects from Costco's earnings
Included in the overall comparable sales outlook for Costco's latest quarter are analyst expectations of 6% growth in sales at U.S. stores.
For total revenue, analysts surveyed by FactSet were modeling for a rise of 8.7% from a year ago, to $69.29 billion. BJ's Wholesale saw 5.6% growth, to $5.58 billion, during the similar three-month period.
And Costco is expected to report adjusted earnings per share, which excludes nonrecurring items, of $4.55, up from $4.02 a year ago.
Costco has beat total revenue expectations in each of the past four quarters and five times in the past eight quarters, while beating profit forecasts in seven of the past eight quarters.
Ahead of the results, BofA Securities analyst Christopher Nardone wrote in a note to clients that he believes Costco will continue to show how it benefits in the current divergent economic environment. Not only does Costco's industry-best pricing attract lower-income shoppers who have become much more value-conscious, but the company's offerings also have "strong appeal" with higher-income consumers, Nardone wrote.
But Costco hasn't had a good track record in reporting results that investors cheered. The stock has declined the day after six of the past eight earnings reports, by an average of 3.2%. The two times the stock rose after earnings, the average gain was 1.6%.
-Tomi Kilgore
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 05, 2026 10:24 ET (15:24 GMT)
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