Volkswagen Guidance in Focus, No Major Surprises Expected -- Earnings Preview

Dow Jones03-06
 

By Dominic Chopping

 

Volkswagen is scheduled to report full-year results on Tuesday. Here is what you need to know:

 

REVENUE FORECAST: The German automaker is expected to post 2025 revenue of 324.65 billion euros ($376.90 billion), according to a FactSet analyst poll, largely unchanged from 324.66 billion euros in 2024.

 

OPERATING PROFIT FORECAST: Operating profit is expected to fall to 9.55 billion euros from 19.06 billion euros, according to FactSet.

 

Shares are down 2.2% in the last 12 months at 92 euros.

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

 

--Total deliveries in 2025 declined by 0.5% on the year, as the automaker continued to be hit by intense competition in China as well as tariffs and the discontinuation of electric-vehicle subsidies in the U.S.

--The company has pre-released some preliminary full-year figures, including industrial free cash flow of around 6 billion euros, resulting in net liquidity of about 34 billion euros, both significantly above forecasts.

--"Guidance [for 2025] was largely confirmed, with revenues expected to match the prior-year level and an operating return on sales between 2-3%," according to AlphaValue analyst Adrien Brasey. "Given these disclosures, we do not anticipate major surprises in the FY25 results."

--Eyes will be on the 2026 outlook, though management disclosed on a pre-close call that it expects pricing pressure to persist in both Europe and China this year, with continued pressure on China volumes, and battery electric vehicles to remain margin-dilutive. The second half of this year is expected to be stronger than the first half, supported by the launch of new ID. family models, Brasey adds.

--Jefferies analysts note that Volkswagen assumes flat year-on-year volumes in 2026 and has preliminary guidance of a 5% EBIT margin and 5 billion euros of net cash flow, with further details due with the full results.

 

Write to Dominic Chopping at dominic.chopping@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 06, 2026 08:49 ET (13:49 GMT)

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