Historical Data Suggest Investors Can Usually 'Look Through' Geopolitical Risk -- Market Talk

Dow Jones03-05 21:09

1308 GMT - Data going back to 1900 suggest that economic risk has proven more significant than geopolitical risk for financial markets, UBS analysts say in a note. In most cases, investors do best if they "look through the noise" of geopolitics, they say. "Using a simple regression of future world equity returns against a geopolitical threat index, we found no relationship, whether we looked a month or a-year ahead." Geopolitical risk clearly matters, however, when there are "extreme events that have a significant economic impact." Examples include World War I and World War II, as well as the 1973-1974 oil shock, the analysts say. These types of events are "relatively rare," however, and economic risk has historically been more important to investors, they say. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 05, 2026 08:09 ET (13:09 GMT)

At the request of the copyright holder, you need to log in to view this content

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2617547255?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2026-03-05 21:09","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2617547255","market":"other","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Historical Data Suggest Investors Can Usually 'Look Through' Geopolitical Risk -- Market Talk","media":"Dow Jones","content":"<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\n     1308 GMT - Data going back to 1900 suggest that economic risk has proven more significant than geopolitical risk for financial markets, UBS analysts say in a note. In most cases, investors do best if they \"look through the noise\" of geopolitics, they say. \"Using a simple regression of future world equity returns against a geopolitical threat index, we found no relationship, whether we looked a month or a-year ahead.\" Geopolitical risk clearly matters, however, when there are \"extreme events that have a significant economic impact.\" Examples include World War I and World War II, as well as the 1973-1974 oil shock, the analysts say. These types of events are \"relatively rare,\" however, and economic risk has historically been more important to investors, they say. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com) \n</p>\n<pre style=\"white-space: pre\">\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  March 05, 2026 08:09 ET (13:09 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Historical Data Suggest Investors Can Usually 'Look Through' Geopolitical Risk -- Market Talk</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHistorical Data Suggest Investors Can Usually 'Look Through' Geopolitical Risk -- Market Talk\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-05 21:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\n     1308 GMT - Data going back to 1900 suggest that economic risk has proven more significant than geopolitical risk for financial markets, UBS analysts say in a note. In most cases, investors do best if they \"look through the noise\" of geopolitics, they say. \"Using a simple regression of future world equity returns against a geopolitical threat index, we found no relationship, whether we looked a month or a-year ahead.\" Geopolitical risk clearly matters, however, when there are \"extreme events that have a significant economic impact.\" Examples include World War I and World War II, as well as the 1973-1974 oil shock, the analysts say. These types of events are \"relatively rare,\" however, and economic risk has historically been more important to investors, they say. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com) \n</p>\n<pre style=\"white-space: pre\">\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  March 05, 2026 08:09 ET (13:09 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4211","symbol_name":"区域性银行","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","article_id":"2617547255","we_media_id":"106","thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2617547255","pubTimestamp":1772716140,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"Dow Jones","introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"summary":"1308 GMT - Data going back to 1900 suggest that economic risk has proven more significant than geopolitical risk for financial markets, UBS analysts say in a note. In most cases, investors do best if they \"look through the noise\" of geopolitics, they say. \"Using a simple regression of future world equity returns against a geopolitical threat index, we found no relationship, whether we looked a month or a-year ahead.\" Geopolitical risk clearly matters, however, when there are \"extreme events that have a significant economic impact.\" Examples include World War I and World War II, as well as the 1973-1974 oil shock, the analysts say. These types of events are \"relatively rare,\" however, and economic risk has historically been more important to investors, they say. ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4211":"区域性银行","ISBC":"投资者银行"},"translate_title":"历史数据表明投资者通常可以“透视”地缘政治风险——市场讨论","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ISBC":1.5},"content_text":"1308 GMT - Data going back to 1900 suggest that economic risk has proven more significant than geopolitical risk for financial markets, UBS analysts say in a note. In most cases, investors do best if they \"look through the noise\" of geopolitics, they say. \"Using a simple regression of future world equity returns against a geopolitical threat index, we found no relationship, whether we looked a month or a-year ahead.\" Geopolitical risk clearly matters, however, when there are \"extreme events that have a significant economic impact.\" Examples include World War I and World War II, as well as the 1973-1974 oil shock, the analysts say. These types of events are \"relatively rare,\" however, and economic risk has historically been more important to investors, they say. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com) \n\n\n \n\n\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  March 05, 2026 08:09 ET (13:09 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":true,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2617547255","isCrawlerRequest":true}