MW 'My mother refuses to turn on the heat': Will America's war with Iran really push up our utility bills?
By Quentin Fottrell
'She is reading alarmist headlines about Iran in the newspapers'
"My mother has been reading the papers and said, 'Heating bills are going up. Have you not read about the war in Iran?'" (Photo subject is a model.)
Dear Quentin,
I'm a 45-year-old woman and am staying with my widowed mother while I get work done on my home. I'll be here for a week or two, and it's been nice being home again, in my old room. My own house is about 10 miles away. This morning, however, I awoke to a freezing house.
I asked my mother if she was turning on the heat. It's hard to move at a fast pace when I can (almost) see my breath. It reminds me of my younger days when I'd wake up for school. My sister and I could see our breath. No wonder we didn't want to get up in the morning.
Anyway, my mother has been reading the papers and said, "Heating bills are going up. Have you not read about the war in Iran?" This is why she won't turn on the heat. Is she overreacting? She is reading alarmist headlines about worsening inflation in the newspapers.
It's barely been a week.
Adult Child
Related: Iran conflict unlikely to hurt U.S. economy or boost inflation - but the Fed won't be quick to cut rates
You can email The Moneyist with any financial and ethical questions at qfottrell@marketwatch.com. The Moneyist regrets he cannot reply to questions individually.
The conflict in Iran does, in fact, represent the biggest disruption to global oil markets since the war in Ukraine began in 2022.
Dear Adult Child,
It's a bit early to be turning down the radiators, but it's never too late to cut costs.
Your mother, given that she belongs to a different generation, is probably more prone to saving a few bucks, and the conflict with Iran has given her the excuse she needs. It's good to be thrifty, and there have been enough warning signs - rising inflation, stubbornly high interest rates, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, President Donald Trump's trade war and, last but not least, the bombing of Iran - to give people pause. Yes, it's a good time to save your money. And a good time to offer her a few dollars as goodwill.
The conflict with Iran does, in fact, represent the biggest disruption to global oil markets since the war in Ukraine began in 2022. Your mother's radiator strike is just one microexample of how consumers and economists are worried about the impact these latest events will have on the global oil supply, gas bills and the economy. And her confusion and, perhaps, fear is also reflected in the world's stock markets: U.S. and European markets both closed lower Thursday.
Your mother's confusion is also reflected in the markets.
Qatar has shut its main liquified natural gas facility, the world's largest, and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for one-fifth of the world's supply of crude oil, is severely disrupted. Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery was also shut down after a drone attack, cutting critical oil-refining and export capacity. Together, these events tighten global oil and gas supply and will push energy prices higher, in addition to increasing shipping and insurance costs.
Mothers of America unite! Your mom is not wrong. She may wish to look into the government's Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program. Energy bills are rising due to a surge in demand from data centers, mainly driven by artificial intelligence; high infrastructure-investment costs; and rising fuel prices, which are not helped by the conflict in Iran. U.S. inflation may have eased to a five-year low of 2.4% in January, but electricity costs rose by 6.3% from a year earlier and natural gas prices jumped almost 10%. One in five Americans cannot afford heating costs.
A quick recap on heating prices. The U.S. holds the largest natural-gas reserves in the world and leads in its production. It is also a major producer of crude oil, although it still imports substantial quantities to meet refinery needs. Brent crude, (BRN00) the international benchmark, was hovering at around $93 a barrel Saturday - highs not seen since the summer of 2024 - as the Strait of Hormuz, between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, has effectively closed down.
From the archives (November 2024): 'I'm convinced the U.S. will be drawn into World War III': How do I prepare my finances?
Utility bills won't go up overnight, and it's too soon to tell whether the Iranian conflict will drag out for months or longer, like the wars in Ukraine, Iraq and Afghanistan. Regime change isn't as simple as removing a head of state (successors are waiting in the wings). Commentators are divided over how this will end. JPMorgan Chase $(JPM)$ CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC that if the conflict is not a prolonged one, an inflationary shock might be avoided. "If," however, is not a complete sentence.
Meanwhile, gasoline prices are already rising. In March, the national average price of gas is $2.88 to $3.11 a gallon, although that varies significantly by state - the average is $4.40 a gallon in Washington state, for example. Prices are expected to climb another 10 to 30 cents in the coming weeks, according to GasBuddy petroleum analyst Matt McClain, partly due to seasonal price changes in the early part of the year, as well as to global tensions driving up crude-oil costs.
Consumer confidence is understandably shaky, as your mother's concerns about utility bills illustrate. The share of Americans who say the state of the economy is poor has reached 42%, according to the latest Economist/YouGov poll released Tuesday. That is the highest level since September 2024. To your point about your mother's believing the headlines she's seeing: Only 4% of Americans say they have a great deal of confidence in newspapers, while 15% have quite a lot, 43% have some and 38% have very little.
Many people are confused by this latest foreign-policy move by the Trump administration. A Reuters/Ipsos poll carried out last weekend found that only 27% of Americans supported the U.S.-Israeli bombing of Iran, while 43% opposed it. Meanwhile, a CBS poll conducted this week showed that over 60% of U.S. adults felt that the White House had not clearly explained its objectives. A CNN poll found that 59% of Americans disapprove of the Iran strikes and see a long-term conflict as likely.
That's a lot of information, but I hope it helps. Perhaps you can reach a compromise on the thermostat.
Related: 'It's an expensive piece of equipment': My neighbor asked to borrow my snowblower. Do I say yes?
More columns from Quentin Fottrell:
My heating and air conditioning always breaks down. Do I spend $15,000 on a new one?
Can I stop my kids from using their inheritance to support political causes I vehemently oppose?
My wife's credit-card payment is three months overdue. As an authorized user, am I in trouble?
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-Quentin Fottrell
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March 08, 2026 06:56 ET (10:56 GMT)
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