By Mackenzie Tatananni
In an investment primer over the summer, BofA Securities analysts dubbed the advent of quantum computing "the next fire moment," or the biggest and most consequential technological development in hundreds of thousands of years.
Call them pollyannaish but attitudes on Wall Street are relatively optimistic, all things considered. Quantum companies are still in the early stages of commercializing the technology, making it difficult to parse out the winners from the losers.
Most, if not all, developers of quantum technology admit in securities filings, quarter after quarter, that their trajectory is unclear. They have yet to turn a profit and may never be profitable; it's the same old reprise.
And yet, analysts are feeling upbeat on the heels of a string of earnings reports from the four publicly traded quantum pure-plays, or the companies concentrating their efforts solely on the technology.
Cantor analyst Troy Jensen noted Wednesday that management at all four companies "remained extremely positive with respect to the industry and conviction regarding the future developments and technical milestones."
Results at D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing, and Quantum Computing mostly played out as expected, characterized by minimal revenue contributions against backdrops of continued technical development.
IonQ, in his view, had an exceptionally strong fourth quarter "with material revenue upside being driven by organic and inorganic growth." While the company "is in the very early innings of commercializing its technology," Jensen likes its broad focus on computing, networking, and security, an approach that has drawn scrutiny from others on Wall Street.
"We believe IonQ can capture 30% of the quantum hardware, software, and services market by 2035, which equates to $954 million in present value terms, using a 10% discount rate," Jensen wrote. He rates the stock at Overweight with a $40 price target.
He isn't the only bull. Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton reiterated a Buy rating on IonQ shares while lowering his price target to $65 from $80, citing multiple compression in the quantum industry.
Bolton pointed to strong fourth-quarter revenue and a 2026 outlook that topped Wall Street's expectations. He acknowledged IonQ's commercial progress in the quarter, notably the sale of a fifth-generation Tempo computer to a South Korean research center.
The company also extended its long-term partnership with Switzerland's QuantumBasel, which included a system purchase and access to the company's sixth-generation machine, which is still in development.
With regard to D-Wave, Rosenblatt Securities analyst John McPeake described the latest quarter as "uneventful." Although fourth-quarter numbers missed forecasts, he doubled down on a Buy rating and $43 price target.
"We like what we heard at Qubits 2026," McPeake wrote, referring to D-Wave's annual user conference, "and the way it seems to be translating into pipeline and prospective sales per management commentary."
With the acquisition of Quantum Circuits and a recent development in on-chip temperature control, D-Wave "seems to have the ingredients to deliver scalability to superconducting quantum computing going forward," McPeake said.
Analysts evidently believe that all is going according to plan at these companies. And some on Wall Street are just as bullish about Rigetti, which hit a snag in its roadmap but quickly got back on track.
Rosenblatt's McPeake reiterated a Buy rating and $40 price target on Rigetti shares, conceding that fourth-quarter results "came in a bit light" while nodding to the company's "good machine sales momentum."
The analyst noted that technical issues that led to the delay of Rigetti's Cepheus-1-108Q system had been quickly resolved. The company was originally targeting delivery by the end of 2025, but had to push out the date by roughly three months.
Management told investors on a call that the machine would be ready by the end of March, adding that Rigetti remains committed to its longer-term target of delivering a far bigger computer by the end of 2026.
"Having the tunable couplers fixed should ease the path to scaling to larger machines going forward," McPeake wrote, adding, "this is a key component of Rigetti's modular quantum compute architecture."
The optimism is boundless. Looking forward, "2026 is setting up to be an exciting year for the industry and we would anticipate more SPACs, mergers and acquisitions," Cantor's Jensen wrote in an email to clients. "Giddy up."
Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 06, 2026 07:33 ET (12:33 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments