BREAKINGVIEWS-Markets’ Iran base case looks like a best case

Reuters03-06 19:46

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

By George Hay

LONDON, March 6 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Oil prices in the mid-$80s a barrel suggest investors expect a swift end to US and Israeli attacks. That only makes sense if a post-conflict Iran is stable. Given the likelihood of continuing rule by hardliners in Tehran, relative financial calm seems misplaced.

Full view will be published shortly.

Follow George Hay on Bluesky and LinkedIn.

CONTEXT NEWS

Iran vowed to take revenge for a U.S. torpedo attack on an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka on March 4, which killed more than 80 sailors, Reuters reported on March 5.

Qatar's energy minister Saad al-Kaabi warned that war in the Middle East could "bring down the economies of the world", predicting that all Gulf energy exporters would shut down production within weeks and drive oil to $150 a barrel, the Financial Times reported on March 6.

Brent crude hit $87.3 a barrel as of 1007 GMT on March 6.

(Editing by Peter Thal Larsen and Neil Unmack; Production by Streisand Neto)

((For previous columns by the author, Reuters customers can click on HAY/george.hay@thomsonreuters.com))

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The opinions expressed are his own.By George  HayLONDON, March 6 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Oil prices in the mid-$80s a barrel suggest investors expect a swift end to US and Israeli attacks. That only makes sense if a post-conflict Iran is stable. Given the likelihood of continuing rule by hardliners in Tehran, relative financial calm seems misplaced.Full view will be published shortly.Follow George Hay on Bluesky and LinkedIn.CONTEXT NEWSIran vowed to take revenge for a U.S. torpedo attack on an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka on March 4, which killed more than 80 sailors, Reuters reported on March 5.Qatar's energy minister Saad al-Kaabi warned that war in the Middle East could \"bring down the economies of the world\", predicting that all Gulf energy exporters would shut down production within weeks and drive oil to $150 a barrel, the Financial Times reported on March 6.Brent crude hit $87.3 a barrel as of 1007 GMT on March 6.(Editing by Peter Thal Larsen and Neil Unmack; Production by Streisand Neto)((For previous columns by the author, Reuters customers can click on HAY/george.hay@thomsonreuters.com))","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":true,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2617821876","isCrawlerRequest":true}