By Dow Jones Newswires staff
Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting March 9.
All eyes will be on developments in the Middle East after the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran and the conflict spread to various countries across the region. This has caused a sharp jump in oil and gas prices, sparking concerns over inflation and causing investors to slash expectations for interest-rate cuts.
In that context, U.S. inflation data will be watched closely, especially after weaker-than-forecast U.S. jobs data.
In Asia, investors will watch a heavy run of data from China, including inflation, trade and money-supply figures, as the National People's Congress concludes, as well as figures on Japan's economic growth.
U.S.
Inflation data for February are released on Wednesday.
The data will come amid heightened concerns over the impact of a huge increase in oil and gas prices due to the Middle East conflict.
Any sign that inflation was already elevated in February will only add to those concerns, particularly after recent data showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs last month. This will raise concerns about stagflation and increase prospects that the U.S. Federal Reserve will struggle to cut interest rates in order to support a weakening economy.
"An unexpected drop in hiring alongside building inflationary pressures presents policymakers with a difficult balancing act," said Isaac Stell, investment manager at Wealth Club.
"For the moment, uncertainty continues to dominate, complicating planning for businesses and clouding the outlook for policymakers."
PCE inflation data for January-the Fed's preferred measure of inflation-will also be released Friday.
Other data include trade and housing starts for January as well as weekly jobless claims figures Thursday, followed by revised fourth-quarter gross domestic product figures Friday. The University of Michigan's flash consumer sentiment indicator for March is also due Friday.
The U.S. Treasury will auction $58 billion in three-year notes on Tuesday, $39 billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday and $22 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.
Canada
Canadian trade data for January on Thursday and jobs data on Friday will be closely watched amid concerns about the impact of the Middle East conflict and uncertainty surrounding trade with the U.S.
Still, analysts said Canada's economy has shown some resilience recently and, as an oil exporter, it could benefit from higher oil prices.
Eurozone
Germany's industrial production data for January on Monday will kick off the week's relative thin data calendar. German and French foreign trade data for January are scheduled for Tuesday, followed by Germany's final CPI data for February and Spanish retail sales figures for January on Wednesday. Final CPI data are due from France and Spain on Friday. Italian and eurozone industrial production data for January are up for release on Friday.
"We expect eurozone industrial production to recover from the December decline, with a projected 0.6% m-o-m increase in January, largely driven by an expected moderate rise in Germany," HSBC analysts said in a note.
Germany will tap March 2028 Schatz on Tuesday and February 2036 Bund on Wednesday. Austria will auction 2032- and 2036-dated bonds on Tuesday, Portugal will have an auction on Wednesday and Italy and Ireland on Thursday.
U.K.
Gross domestic product data for January on Friday will be the highlight of U.K. data in the coming week.
This comes as yields on U.K. government bonds have jumped and investors have slashed expectations for interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England due to concerns about high inflation resulting from surging energy prices due to the Middle East conflict.
A rate reduction in March, which had looked likely prior to attacks on Iran by the U.S. and Israel, now looks very unlikely. Analysts said a reduction in April or June would be possible if the situation in the Middle East stabilizes over the coming weeks. U.K. money markets are now no longer pricing in a rate cut in 2026, having previously priced two, LSEG data show.
"Were energy prices on international markets to stay as high as they are currently for a prolonged period, the U.K. would feel the chill of higher inflation and lower growth," said Investec economist Ellie Henderson in a note.
"But it is far from clear how the situation will evolve and therefore what its economic impact might be."
Industrial production and trade figures for January will also be released on Friday. The RICS house price survey for February is due Thursday.
The U.K. will sell government bonds maturing in September 2049 on Thursday.
Scandinavia
Sweden plans to syndicate a new February 2037-dated government bond on Wednesday.
Switzerland
Switzerland will hold its monthly bond auction on Wednesday.
Turkey
Turkey's central bank announces a decision on interest rate policy on Thursday.
Given the sharp rise in oil prices and the risk that poses to the inflation outlook, interest rates are likely to be left on hold, ING analyst Muhammet Mercan said in a note.
"We expect [Turkey's central bank] to be cautious and not to change the policy rate," he said.
Japan
Government data due Tuesday are expected to show that Japan's economy grew faster than initially estimated in the October-December quarter, supported by stronger capital spending. Preliminary figures released in February showed the economy expanding 0.1% from the previous quarter.
Japan will release current-account and bank-lending figures on Monday, followed by household spending on Tuesday.
The Bank of Japan is scheduled to buy government bonds across multiple maturity ranges on Tuesday. These sectors include sovereign securities with tenors of more than 1 year and up to 3 years, those with tenors of more than 10 years and up to 25 years, and those with tenors of more than 25 years.
The Ministry of Finance will also hold two auctions during the week. It plans to sell about 2.5 trillion yen of five-year sovereign notes on Wednesday, and about 300 billion yen of 10-year Japan climate transition bonds on Friday.
Australia/New Zealand
It will be quiet in Australia and New Zealand, with no major data releases or speeches by senior central bank officials on the calendar.
Still, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has economists and traders watching oil prices amid fears that a sustained war will cause inflation expectations to rise.
Some economists warn that Australia's headline inflation rate could rise above 5.0% if oil prices continue to climb. That would severely test the Reserve Bank of Australia's willingness to delay further interest-rate increases.
RBA Gov. Michele Bullock has already said the board will consider the case for a second rate increase in as many months when it next meets March 16-17.
China
Markets are closely watching China as the National People's Congress-one of the country's biggest political meetings-draws to a close and a series of economic data releases is due in the coming week.
Inflation data are scheduled for release on Monday, and will likely show continued weakness in both consumer and factory-gate prices, though Lunar New Year distortions will complicate the readings.
A Wall Street Journal poll forecasts an uptick in consumer price growth to 0.9% in February, and a narrowed decline in producer prices to 1.1% from 1.4% in January.
ANZ Research expects consumer prices to have been buoyed by holiday-driven demand, and the improvement in PPI to reflect higher raw-material costs.
Trade data for January and February is due on Tuesday. The WSJ-compiled forecast tips exports growth at 7% and imports at 6%.
DBS economists expect exports growth to have accelerated as shipping activity remains strong, supported by improved non-U.S. trade
Taiwan
Taiwan is expected to release February trade data on Monday, after posting a nearly 70% surge in exports in January.
The February print will likely show slower but still robust exports growth.
The island's chips and electronics have been in high demand, fueling a surge in export growth that powered the economy through the tariff uncertainty of last year.
Economists at DBS expect continued double-digit export growth in February, despite fewer working days due to the Lunar New Year holiday.
Global demand for semiconductors and AI servers remains intact, and there is no clear evidence so far of negative spillovers from the Middle East conflict or the oil price shock, the DBS economics team said.
However, if oil prices stay high, that could weigh on end-demand for consumer electronics, it added.
India
India will release February inflation data on Thursday.
Under the new data series, inflation likely accelerated to 3.3% on the year as favorable base effects faded, driving food inflation higher, Dhiraj Nim of ANZ Research said.
"CPI inflation in the new series is rising faster than expected compared to the old series, but that has partly to do with unexpectedly high precious metal prices, apart from the differences in the weighting of individual items," the economist said.
While inflation likely climbed above 3.0%, it's not likely to bother policymakers, who are instead focused on improving policy transmission and maintaining financial market stability amid global geopolitical risks, the DBS economics team said.
Trade data due on Friday will also be keenly watched as the tariff uncertainties with the U.S. unfold.
Any references to days are in local times.
Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Jihye Lee at jihye.lee@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 06, 2026 11:21 ET (16:21 GMT)
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