Al Root
It's a big day for electric-vehicle start-up Rivian Automotive. It comes at a very difficult time for the industry.
Later on Thursday, Rivian will officially unveil pricing and specifications for its long-awaited R2 platform of vehicles, which are key to unlocking sales growth in a down market for EVs.
The cars should start somewhere between $40,000 and $50,000. Rivian's first models, built on the R1 platform, start north of $70,000, limiting the pool of potential buyers.
Pricing is a challenge, but the closer to $40,000, the better. "R2 was initially unveiled back in Mar.'24 with a [roughly] $45,000 starting price, and management has continued to reiterate this target," wrote Barclays analyst Dan Levy on Wednesday. "That said, we note that a number of factors have moved against Rivan from the initial unveil, with higher tariff costs and the elimination of regulatory credits further pressuring [the company's] profitability."
The Trump administration has rolled back several policies that benefited EVs, including eliminating the $7,500 EV purchase tax credit in September. Reduced affordability pushed U.S. EV sales down 36% year over year in the fourth quarter. That is what R2 vehicles face in the market this year.
Deliveries are expected to start in the first half of 2026. Wall Street projects Rivian's 2026 volumes at about 65,000 vehicles, up from about 42,000 sold in 2025.
TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli sees annual R2 demand eventually topping 200,000 units. Demand could eventually exceed 330,000 vehicles, suggesting upside to 2027 delivery estimates, he says. Wall Street projects 2027 sales of about 136,000 vehicles.
Tesla's Model Y sold 357,528 units in the U.S. in 2025, down 4% year over year. It's the best-selling EV in America by far.
The R2 launch was part of the reason for Michaeli's Mar. 10 upgrade. He took his rating to Buy from Hold and his price target to $20 from $17 a share.
On balance, Wall Street is optimistic about the launch. Almost 40% of analysts covering Rivian stock rate shares Buy, according to FactSet. That's below the average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 of about 59%, but Rivian has picked up three Buy ratings over the past three months.
The average analyst price target for Rivian shares is currently about $18.
Rivian stock was down 2.6% in early trading at $16.22, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were off 1.2% and 1.3%, respectively.
Coming into Thursday trading, Rivian's stock was down about 16% this year.
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 12, 2026 10:06 ET (14:06 GMT)
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