U.S. natural gas futures drop 2% due to milder weather forecasts
Qatar LNG shutdown impacts global supply, but U.S. exports remain steady
Waha Hub prices hit record lows due to pipeline constraints in West Texas
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Tuesday on forecasts for milder weather over the next two weeks than previously expected and a drop in global energy prices on a possible end to the war in Iran in weeks.
Front-month gas futures for April delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6.9 cents, or 2.2%, to $3.051 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
The shutdown of liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export production in Qatar last week due to the war in Iran removed about 20% of global LNG supplies. Qatar is one of the biggest LNG producers in the world along with the U.S. and Australia.
Prices in the U.S. have reacted to the Iran war, but not by as much as elsewhere in the world because America produces all the gas it needs and was already exporting all the LNG it could. So, no matter how high global gas prices go, the U.S. cannot export much more gas.
Since the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on February 28, U.S. gas prices have gained about 6% versus around 48% in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and 51% in Asia JKMc1.
In the U.S. cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas fell to a record low of negative $7.15 per mmBtu, keeping the contract in negative territory for a record 23 days in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.
Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and 32 times so far this year.
Waha prices have averaged a negative 12 cents per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and $2.88 over the past five years (2021-2025).
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 109.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Energy analysts said mostly mild weather in recent weeks has allowed energy firms to leave more gas in storage than usual for this time of year, which should keep stockpiles steady at about 2% below normal for the week ended March 6, the same as during the week ended February 27. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast weather across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through March 25, which should keep heating demand and the amount of gas energy firms need to pull from storage low in coming weeks. The weather, however, is expected to be colder next week than this week.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump from 112.0 bcfd this week to 125.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants slid to 18.1 bcfd so far in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February.
Around the world, gas traded near $16 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Week ended Mar 6 Forecast | Week ended Feb 27 Actual | Year ago Mar 6 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Mar 6 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -53 | -132 | -64 | -64 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,833 | 1,886 | 1,707 | 1,865 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -1.7% | -2.2% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.13 | 3.12 | 4.14 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 16.47 | 19.34 | 13.21 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 16.23 | 15.71 | 13.50 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System $(GFS)$ Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 246 | 258 | 229 | 283 | 287 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 30 | 30 | 11 | 15 | 11 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 276 | 288 | 240 | 298 | 298 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 109.8 | 110.3 | 110.5 | 106.1 | 99.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.3 | 7.5 | 8.6 | N/A | 8.0 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 118.1 | 117.8 | 119.1 | N/A | 108.0 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.2 | N/A | 3.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.7 | N/A | 5.8 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.2 | 18.3 | 18.6 | 15.5 | 13.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 12.5 | 9.5 | 13.5 | 10.9 | 12.1 |
U.S. Residential | 18.9 | 13.2 | 20.3 | 16.6 | 18.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 31.8 | 29.0 | 29.5 | 30.4 | 31.8 |
U.S. Industrial | 24.1 | 23.2 | 24.9 | 23.7 | 24.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 4.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 95.4 | 82.6 | 96.4 | 89.6 | 96.3 |
Total U.S. Demand | 124.1 | 112.0 | 125.9 | N/A | 118.7 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 101 | 98 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 101 | 98 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 106 | 102 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Mar 13 | Week ended Mar 6 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 18 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
33 | 38 | 40 | 42 | 41 | |
Coal | 13 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 20 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.25 | 3.10 | 4.13 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.25 | 2.35 | 3.40 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 1.78 | 1.59 | 3.52 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.20 | 2.15 | 3.29 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.81 | 2.59 | 3.53 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.44 | 2.99 | 3.74 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.39 | 2.00 | 3.53 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -7.15 | -2.23 | 0.78 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.45 | 1.26 | 1.47 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 39.00 | 69.00 | 50.19 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 46.43 | 44.24 | 48.35 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 17.43 | 6.23 | 34.51 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 7.91 | 7.73 | 23.31 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 7.85 | 7.17 | 16.63 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Editing by Nick Zieminski)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))
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