Evaluating NextDecade (NEXT) After Rio Grande LNG Milestones And Rich Price To Book Multiple

Simply Wall St.03-11

NextDecade (NEXT) is back in focus after recent updates on its Rio Grande LNG Facility, where the company confirmed positive final investment decisions on Trains 4 and 5 and outlined plans to expand ...

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See our latest analysis for NextDecade. Those Rio Grande LNG milestones have come after a mixed stretch for the stock, with a 6.11% 1 month share price return but a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 18% and a very large 5 year total shareholder return gain of more than 200%. This suggests that long term holders have still seen strong value creation, while recent momentum has been more muted. If this LNG build out has your attention and you want to see what else is shaping the future of energy infrastructure, take a look at 24 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks as a starting list of ideas. With the stock around US$5.56 after a 1 year total return decline of nearly 18% but a very large 5 year gain, and with Rio Grande LNG moving ahead despite a US$306.43 million annual loss, is there a genuine opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth? AdvertisementPreferred Price to Book of 15.5x: Is it justified? NextDecade trades at a P/B of 15.5x, which is far higher than both its direct peers and the broader US oil and gas industry at the latest close of $5.56. P/B compares a company’s market value to its book value. It is often used as a rough check on how much investors are willing to pay for the assets on the balance sheet. For NextDecade, this high P/B sits alongside no meaningful revenue and an annual net loss of $306.43 million, which means the current price is not being supported by present profitability. Compared with a peer average P/B of 1.6x and a US oil and gas industry average of 1.7x, NextDecade’s 15.5x multiple stands out as very expensive. That gap indicates the market is assigning a much richer valuation to the company’s future project pipeline and LNG ambitions than to typical asset based valuations in the sector. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. Result: Price to book of 15.5x (OVERVALUED) However, you still need to weigh project execution risk and the lack of current revenue support; either could quickly challenge the market’s rich expectations. Find out about the key risks to this NextDecade narrative. Another View: Our DCF Model Also Flags Rich Pricing Our DCF model points in the same direction as the high P/B. With NextDecade at $5.56 and our estimate of future cash flow value at $2.14, the shares look expensive on this second yardstick as well. If both tools indicate overvaluation, what would need to change for that assessment to shift? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. NEXT Discounted Cash Flow as at Mar 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out NextDecade for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 48 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity. Next Steps If this all sounds cautious, treat it as your prompt to move quickly, review the full picture yourself, and weigh up the company’s 4 important warning signs. Looking for more investment ideas? If this review has raised tough questions about NextDecade, do not stop here, broadening your watchlist now can help you spot opportunities others overlook.  Focus your attention on companies that look attractively priced by checking out 48 high quality undervalued stocks built from our valuation filters. Strengthen the quality of your portfolio by scanning solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (41 results) to find businesses with sturdier financial foundations. Get ahead of the crowd by reviewing our screener containing 23 high quality undiscovered gems and see which under followed names pass the fundamentals test.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if NextDecade might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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