Reassessing Vail Resorts (MTN) After A Five Year Slide And DCF Upside Potential

Simply Wall St.03-12

If you are wondering whether Vail Resorts is attractively priced after a long slide in the share price, this article walks through what the current valuation might be telling you. The stock last ...

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The stock last ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-services/nyse-mtn/vail-resorts/news/reassessing-vail-resorts-mtn-after-a-five-year-slide-and-dcf\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reassessing Vail Resorts (MTN) After A Five Year Slide And DCF Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReassessing Vail Resorts (MTN) After A Five Year Slide And DCF Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-12 14:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-services/nyse-mtn/vail-resorts/news/reassessing-vail-resorts-mtn-after-a-five-year-slide-and-dcf><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you are wondering whether Vail Resorts is attractively priced after a long slide in the share price, this article walks through what the current valuation might be telling you. The stock last ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-services/nyse-mtn/vail-resorts/news/reassessing-vail-resorts-mtn-after-a-five-year-slide-and-dcf\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"DCF","symbol_name":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-services/nyse-mtn/vail-resorts/news/reassessing-vail-resorts-mtn-after-a-five-year-slide-and-dcf","article_id":"2618900025","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/4213000-choice2-main-header/1585186738095"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-services/nyse-mtn/vail-resorts/news/reassessing-vail-resorts-mtn-after-a-five-year-slide-and-dcf","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2618900025","pubTimestamp":1773296863,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are wondering whether Vail Resorts is attractively priced after a long slide in the share price, this article walks through what the current valuation might be telling you.\nThe stock last closed at US$138.53, with returns of 1.6% over 7 days, a 1.8% decline over 30 days, a 3.4% gain year to date, and declines of 9.2%, 26.2% and 47.5% over the past 1, 3 and 5 years respectively.\nRecent news coverage has focused on Vail Resorts as a large operator in the ski and mountain resort space,...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","MTN":"Vail Resorts Inc","BK4216":"消闲设施"},"translate_title":"在五年下滑后重新评估韦尔度假村(MTN)和DCF上涨潜力","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DCF":1.5,"MTN":1.5},"content_text":"If you are wondering whether Vail Resorts is attractively priced after a long slide in the share price, this article walks through what the current valuation might be telling you. The stock last closed at US$138.53, with returns of 1.6% over 7 days, a 1.8% decline over 30 days, a 3.4% gain year to date, and declines of 9.2%, 26.2% and 47.5% over the past 1, 3 and 5 years respectively. Recent news coverage has focused on Vail Resorts as a large operator in the ski and mountain resort space, where investors often weigh factors such as visitation trends, season pass uptake and capital investment in resorts. This context helps frame the recent price moves as the market reacts to changing views on the durability and quality of the company’s cash flows. On our valuation checks, Vail Resorts currently scores 5 out of 6, giving it a value score of 5/6. Next, we will look at how different valuation methods arrive at that result and why there may be an even better way to think about fair value that we will come back to at the end of the article.  Find out why Vail Resorts's -9.2% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers. AdvertisementApproach 1: Vail Resorts Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A DCF model projects a company’s future cash flows and discounts them back to today’s dollars, aiming to estimate what the entire business might be worth right now. For Vail Resorts, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $286.4 million. Analyst inputs extend to $563.5 million of free cash flow in 2028, with further annual figures out to 2035 extrapolated from those analyst estimates by Simply Wall St. When all those projected free cash flows are discounted back using this model, the estimated intrinsic value comes out at about $277.88 per share. Against the recent share price of $138.53, this model suggests the stock is 50.1% undervalued on this DCF view. Result: UNDERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Vail Resorts is undervalued by 50.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 50 more high quality undervalued stocks. MTN Discounted Cash Flow as at Mar 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Vail Resorts. Approach 2: Vail Resorts Price vs Earnings For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of earnings, because it ties the share price directly to the bottom line rather than to revenue or balance sheet values alone. What counts as a \"normal\" P/E depends on how the market views a company’s growth prospects and risk. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can support a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk tends to line up with a lower P/E. Vail Resorts currently trades on a P/E of 21.26x. That sits slightly below the Hospitality industry average of about 21.81x and below the peer group average of 23.98x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for the company is 21.99x, which is a proprietary estimate of an appropriate P/E based on factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap and company specific risks. This Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the wider industry, because it adjusts for the company’s own characteristics instead of assuming all Hospitality companies should trade on the same multiple. Comparing 21.26x with the 21.99x Fair Ratio, Vail Resorts screens as slightly undervalued on this P/E view. Result: UNDERVALUED NYSE:MTN P/E Ratio as at Mar 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 20 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Vail Resorts Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which let you attach a clear story about Vail Resorts to concrete numbers like your assumed fair value, future revenue, earnings and margins, then keep that view living as new data comes in. A Narrative links what you believe about the business, for example whether expanded mountain dining and share buybacks support a fair value closer to about US$223, or whether climate risks and changing leisure habits suggest something nearer to US$146, to a full forecast and a single Fair Value that you can compare with today’s share price. On Simply Wall St, Narratives sit inside the Community page and are used by millions of investors as an accessible tool. This means you can see how a more optimistic Vail Resorts view that leans on higher earnings and a richer P/E multiple compares with a more cautious view built around slower revenue growth and lower margins, then decide how you want to act when Fair Value and Price line up or diverge. Do you think there's more to the story for Vail Resorts? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NYSE:MTN 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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