Has The Market Rerated Newmont (NEM) After Its 1-Year Surge In Share Price?

Simply Wall St.03-11

If you are wondering whether Newmont's current share price reflects its true worth, you are not alone. The stock has been drawing attention from investors focused on value as well as gold exposure. ...

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The stock has been drawing attention from investors focused on value as well as gold exposure. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/materials/nyse-nem/newmont/news/has-the-market-rerated-newmont-nem-after-its-1-year-surge-in\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00B19Z3B42.SGD","symbol_name":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/materials/nyse-nem/newmont/news/has-the-market-rerated-newmont-nem-after-its-1-year-surge-in","article_id":"2618962499","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/company-cover/291795-main-header/1756222256201"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/materials/nyse-nem/newmont/news/has-the-market-rerated-newmont-nem-after-its-1-year-surge-in","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2618962499","pubTimestamp":1773174201,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are wondering whether Newmont's current share price reflects its true worth, you are not alone. The stock has been drawing attention from investors focused on value as well as gold exposure.\nOver the past week the share price has declined 9.1%, while the 30 day return sits at 1.4% and the 1 year return at 179.6% has been strong enough to change how many investors think about its risk and reward profile.\nRecent news around Newmont has kept investors focused on broader themes for gold...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU0654597011.USD":"BGF NATURAL RESOURCES \"A4G\" (USD) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0075056555.USD":"贝莱德世界矿业基金A2","BK7104":"黄金","LU0630314457.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1223082519.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL GOLD \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU0055631609.USD":"贝莱德世界黄金基金A2","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU0345780521.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL GOLD \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0345780950.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2462611646.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS REAL ASSETS TARGET INCOME \"A2\" (USD) INC MTI","LU0496367417.USD":"富兰克林黄金和贵金属A（acc）","LU2498475776.HKD":"AMUNDI FUNDS REAL ASSETS TARGET INCOME \"A2\" (HKD) INC","SG9999001143.SGD":"United Gold and General A Acc SGD","LU0345781412.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1883866441.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS REAL ASSETS TARGET INCOME \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0788108826.HKD":"BGF WORLD GOLD \"A2\" (HKDHGD) ACC","LU1223083913.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Gold A Acc SGD-H","LU0278409577.USD":"MANULIFE GLOBAL FUND-GLOBAL RESOURCES FUND \"AA\" (USD) INC","NWMX":"Tradr 2X Long NEM Daily ETF","BK4588":"碎股","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0498741890.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Gold and Precious Metals A (acc) SGD","NEMG":"2倍做多NEM ETF-Leverage Shares","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK4017":"黄金","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0300736492.USD":"FRANKLIN NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0612318385.USD":"BGF NATURAL RESOURCES \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0266512127.USD":"摩根大通环球自然资源 A(acc)","NEM":"纽曼矿业","LU0612318971.USD":"BGF NATURAL RESOURCES \"A5G\" (USD) INC","LU1023059493.AUD":"Blackrock World Mining A2 AUD-H","LU0300736062.USD":"FRANKLIN NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0368265764.SGD":"Blackrock World Gold Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0724618789.USD":"BGF WORLD GOLD \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0498741114.HKD":"FRANKLIN GOLD & PRECIOUS METALS \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU1430597077.USD":"BGF NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","LU0266512473.USD":"JPM GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0456854461.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Natural Resources A (acc) SGD","LU0345780281.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL GOLD \"A\"  ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0788109121.HKD":"BGF WORLD MINING \"A2\" (HKDHGD) ACC","LU1223082196.USD":"施罗德环球黄金A Acc","LU0330918003.SGD":"Blackrock World Mining A2 SGD-H"},"translate_title":"纽蒙特公司(NEM)股价连续一年飙升后，市场是否重新评级？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NEM":1.98,"NWMX":0.6,"NEMG":0.6},"content_text":"If you are wondering whether Newmont's current share price reflects its true worth, you are not alone. The stock has been drawing attention from investors focused on value as well as gold exposure. Over the past week the share price has declined 9.1%, while the 30 day return sits at 1.4% and the 1 year return at 179.6% has been strong enough to change how many investors think about its risk and reward profile. Recent news around Newmont has kept investors focused on broader themes for gold producers, including sector wide discussions about capital allocation, cost control and how miners respond to gold price moves. These headlines help explain why sentiment around the stock can shift quickly, even when the underlying business story takes longer to play out. Newmont currently holds a valuation score of 3/6, reflecting areas where it screens as undervalued on some checks but not on others. Next we will look at how different valuation methods treat the stock before circling back to a broader way of thinking about what fair value really means.  Newmont delivered 179.6% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Metals and Mining industry. AdvertisementApproach 1: Newmont Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes estimates of a company’s future cash flows and discounts them back to today to arrive at an estimate of what the business might be worth now in dollars. For Newmont, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is reported at about $6.45b. Analysts have provided explicit forecasts out to 2029, with Simply Wall St extrapolating beyond the initial analyst horizon to create a ten year path of cash flows. Within those projections, the 2029 free cash flow is set at $4.03b, with later years stepping down from there based on the stated estimates and extrapolated figures. Discounting this stream of cash flows back to today gives an estimated intrinsic value of $62.20 per share. Compared with the current share price, the model suggests Newmont is about 88.0% overvalued on this DCF view. Result: OVERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Newmont may be overvalued by 88.0%. Discover 46 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities. NEM Discounted Cash Flow as at Mar 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Newmont. Approach 2: Newmont Price vs Earnings For profitable companies like Newmont, the P/E ratio is a common way to think about value because it links what you pay for each share to the earnings that support it. What counts as a “normal” P/E depends a lot on how the market views a company’s growth prospects and risks, with higher growth or lower perceived risk often associated with higher multiples. Newmont’s current P/E is 17.93x. That sits below the Metals and Mining industry average of 22.28x and also below the peer group average of 30.55x. On the surface, that might suggest the stock trades at a lower earnings multiple than many of its listed peers. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Newmont is 33.29x. This is a proprietary estimate of the P/E investors might expect for the company, based on factors such as earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and key risks. Because it ties these company specific drivers together, the Fair Ratio can give a more tailored anchor than broad peer or industry comparisons alone. Setting the current P/E of 17.93x against the Fair Ratio of 33.29x indicates that Newmont is trading below that tailored level. Result: UNDERVALUED NYSE:NEM P/E Ratio as at Mar 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 20 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Newmont Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simply the stories investors attach to the numbers by linking their view of Newmont’s business to specific forecasts for revenue, earnings and margins. These forecasts are then turned into a fair value that can be compared with today’s share price. On Simply Wall St’s Community page you can see this in action through different Newmont Narratives. For example, one narrative sets fair value at US$146.00 with assumptions like 9.34% revenue growth, a 33.42% profit margin, a 19.05x future P/E and a discount rate of 8.19%. Another narrative sets fair value at US$51.70 with 12.93% revenue growth, an 8.85% margin, a very high 258.50x future P/E and an 8.0% discount rate. This shows how the same company can support very different stories. Each narrative is updated when fresh news or results arrive so you can quickly see whether your fair value still stacks up against Newmont’s current price. For Newmont, here are previews of two leading Newmont narratives to make comparison easier. Here is how a bullish and a more cautious view line up side by side so you can see which assumptions feel closer to your own. 🐂 Newmont Bull Case Fair value: US$146.00 Undervalued vs last close: about 19.9% below this fair value Revenue growth used in this narrative: 9.34%  Frames Newmont as a large scale gold producer with a portfolio of Tier 1, long life, lower cost mines across several regions. Highlights record recent revenue and free cash flow, a move to a net cash balance sheet and a focus on margin and project delivery. Applies a 15.0x exit P/E to a 2027 earnings estimate of US$9.73 per share to reach a US$146.00 fair value, viewing the current price as a material discount.  🐻 Newmont Bear Case Fair value: US$110.65 Overvalued vs last close: about 5.4% above this fair value Revenue growth used in this narrative: 7.91%  Builds on analyst estimates that point to modest revenue growth, slightly lower profit margins and some dispersion in earnings expectations out to 2028. Flags risks around safety incidents, lower grade periods at key mines, higher sustaining capex, reliance on asset sales and leadership transitions. Uses an analyst consensus fair value of about US$110.65, with a required P/E of 14.0x on 2028 earnings and a 7.5% discount rate, which sits close to the current share price.  Taken together, these narratives show you the spread of informed views around Newmont using different assumptions for growth, profitability and risk. You can use them as reference points and then decide where your own expectations fit on that spectrum. Do you think there's more to the story for Newmont? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NYSE:NEM 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Newmont might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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