Assessing Popular (BPOP) Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness And Long Term Gains

Simply Wall St.03-12

AdvertisementPopular’s recent share performance and financial profile Popular (BPOP) has attracted attention after a mixed stretch in its share performance, including a 0.8% decline over the past day,...

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In contrast to that shorter term weakness, the bank shows a 6.6% gain over the past 3 months, with total returns of 2.3% year to date and 51.9% over the past year, along with very large 3 year and 5 year total returns. At a last close of US$128.85, Popular is trading against annual revenue of US$2.94b and net income of US$831.75m, with recent annual revenue and net income growth figures of 7.7% and 7.3% respectively. See our latest analysis for Popular. Recent trading has been choppy, with a 1 day share price return of 0.75% decline, a 7 day share price return of 5.19% decline and a 30 day share price return of 12.53% decline. At the same time, the 1 year total shareholder return of 51.92% and 3 year total shareholder return of 172.96% point to stronger longer term momentum off the current US$128.85 level. If Popular’s mix of short term pressure and strong multi year total shareholder returns has your attention, it could be a moment to see what else is moving in financials and beyond, including 20 top founder-led companies as a curated way to uncover other potential ideas. With Popular trading at US$128.85 against recent revenue of about US$2.94b and net income of US$831.75m, the key question is whether the current valuation still leaves upside on the table or if the market is already pricing in future growth. Most Popular Narrative: 17.9% Undervalued Popular’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at about $157 per share, comfortably above the recent $128.85 close, and anchors that view in earnings power and capital returns. Ongoing investments in digital infrastructure, including the launch of a new digital platform for commercial cash management and branch modernization, are expected to improve customer acquisition, retention, and operational efficiency. Combined, these initiatives support the thesis of long-term revenue and margin expansion as the bank scales its digital capabilities across key markets. Read the complete narrative. If you are curious what kind of revenue trajectory and profit margins need to hold for that fair value to align, especially with buybacks shrinking the share count and a specific future P/E incorporated in the model, you will want to see how all those assumptions fit together in the full narrative. Result: Fair Value of $157 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, that upside narrative still hinges on Puerto Rico remaining relatively stable and on Popular keeping credit quality and funding costs under tight control. Find out about the key risks to this Popular narrative. Next Steps With that mix of optimism and caution in mind, this is a good moment to move quickly, review the full picture, and weigh the trade off for yourself using 6 key rewards and 1 important warning sign. Looking for more investment ideas? If Popular has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Widen your watchlist now so you are not looking back wishing you had acted sooner.  Spot robust companies with healthy finances by running your checks through our solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (41 results) and see which names stand up to tougher scrutiny. Hunt for potential value opportunities by scanning the market for 50 high quality undervalued stocks that pair quality fundamentals with appealing pricing. Stack your income options by reviewing 14 dividend fortresses that aim for 5%+ yields while still focusing on stability.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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