By Doug Busch
A wave of selling has hit materials stocks, raising fresh questions about the strength of the commodity trade. Over the past month, the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF has been the worst performer among 11 major sector groups, falling nearly 8%. The ETF is now 9% below its most recent 52-week high and has advanced in only one session so far this month.
Mining stocks account for much of this weakness. Gold itself has shown signs of a potential double top as the U.S. dollar strengthens, adding to the pressure. I highlighted both of these concerns on March 3.
Let's look at two large-cap miners that still appear to have room for downside.
Newmont Corp., one of the world's largest gold miners, has posted an impressive one-year return of 136%, and is still up 9% year to date. To demonstrate how powerful the long-term run has been, Newmont hasn't recorded a three-week losing streak since the end of 2024. But signs of fatigue are creeping in as the stock has declined by 13% over the past month and 17% over the last two weeks.
The three-year weekly chart reveals a potentially meaningful retreat. The stock is now 19% off its most recent 52-week high and has posted some dubious candlesticks. The first week of March recorded a bearish engulfing candle falling 10.5%. This was its first double-digit weekly drop since October 2024. Another bearish engulfing candle came the last week of January where it registered a 9.6% loss. Adding to the bearish narrative the week ending Feb. 20 recorded a doji candle, typically a reliable indicator for changes in direction. Notice too the bearish MACD crossover that occurred last week, its first significant one since the fourth quarter of 2024.
A pullback toward the very round $90 mark, where the 50-week simple moving average would catch up in price, is likely to occur next month. This would represent a 19% pullback from current prices and be the first touch of the line since a cup with handle breakout last June, which is often an optimal entry point. Remain bearish below $117. Newmont was trading at $112 Monday.
Coeur Mining is down 27% from its annual peak, reached Jan. 26. The precious metals miner has now declined three of the last seven weeks, with all three losing weeks' losses exceeding 10%. This includes the last week of January when the stock slumped 22% on its largest-ever weekly volume. On its ratio chart versus the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF, Coeur Mining is sporting a bearish rounded top pattern.
The daily chart shows some soft behavior over the last several weeks. I am not calling for a bear market, but look for a pullback for a better entry. First we can see the distribution in late January with robust volume beginning the drawdown. A bearish engulfing candle on Jan. 26 was a shot across the bow, and the doji candle appeared the very next session. This came after a prior cup base breakout above a $23.72 pivot on Jan. 22 unraveled, which was a red flag. We know the best breakouts tend to work right away and power upward. Another doji candle appeared on March 2. Since then the stock has lost a quarter of its value.
I think this will trade back toward its 200 day simple moving average near $16.50 in the near term, a fall of 18% from current prices, before stabilizing and potentially beginning a double bottom pattern. Remain bearish below $21.75. Coeur Mining was trading around $20.75 Monday.
For now, investors will watch closely to see whether the mining group has further downside ahead.
Doug Busch is the senior technical analyst at Barron's Investor Circle . His technical view is added to stock picks, including those published exclusively for Investor Circle readers. A glossary of technical terms is updated regularly with new entries.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 16, 2026 10:29 ET (14:29 GMT)
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